WLADIMIR KLITSCHKO vs SAMUEL PETER

The big criticism of Wladimir Klitschko has been that, while he is undoubtedly effective, he can be cautious to a fault. With such a big, powerful heavyweight, fans expect to see the big guns wheeled out far sooner than is usually the case with “Dr. Steelhammer”.
 
Perhaps we will see Klitschko opening up earlier in his rematch with Sam Peter in Germany on Saturday. Klitschko has apparently assured his trainer, Emanuel Steward, that in this fight he will be more offensive-minded than in the past.
 
In his last fight, Klitschko didn’t start opening up at full tilt until the last round, knocking out Eddie Chambers spectacularly with five seconds remaining. Steward believes there is hope, however, that Klitschko will start firing his big punches much sooner when he meets Peter in a fight that can be seen in the U.S. on tape-delay on ESPN Deportes at 8 p.m. Eastern Time (with live internet coverage on espn3 at 5 p.m. ET).
 
The first fight between Klitschko and Peter five years ago saw the towering Ukrainian come into the ring as an underdog. Klitschko suffered three knockdowns but dominated most of the fight and had Peter out on his feet with a left hook in the last round.
 
“I think it will be a more explosive fight than the first one, because of Wladimir, where his state of mind is,” Steward said over the phone from  Frankfurt this week.
 
Steward feels that Peter will come out throwing bombs — and that Klitschko will be ready to meet him with serious firepower. It is the sort of fight, Steward believes, where Klitschko feels that the time is right to shed the safety-first tactics, not to the point of taking needless risks but with a view to doing damage in the initial stages of the contest.
 
In the first fight, Klitschko scored points with the jab and right hand and grabbed often. It proved to be a winning strategy. Although Klitschko went down three times it did seem that he was being hit on the back of the head rather than on the chin. It was Klitschko, though, who landed the most vivid blow of the contest when his left hook had Peter’s head spinning and knees dipping in the last round.
 
Klitschko has since been winning steadily while Peter twice outpointed James Toney, battered Oleg Maskaev to become champion but suffered a one-sided pasting against the older Klitschko brother, Vitali, and lost on points to Eddie Chambers.
 
It seemed as if Peter had lost direction. He weighed his heaviest ever for a fight — 265 pounds — when he lost to Chambers 18 months ago. However, Peter seems a new fighter after signing a promotional contract with promoter Bob Arum’s Top Rank organisation and hooking up with trainer Abel Sanchez.
 
“I think Sam is a better fighter than the one that fought Vitali and I’ve complimented him on this,” Steward said.
 
“I’ve always maintained a close personal relationship with Sam and we speak on the phone a lot and I know that prior to the fight with Vitali he was very upset and not spiritually into it at all, but for this fight he’s totally different. He’s had four good wins since he signed with Bob Arum, he’s got a good trainer in Abel Sanchez, he’s been training at Big Bear, his weight is down and in his last fight he looked sensational — I was shocked. So he’s a different fighter than the one that fought Vitali.
 
“The first time with Wladimir,  [Peter] was very confident, a big, hulking guy, knocking everybody down, clubbing them in the head, knocking them out — his confidence was sky high. I think he’s not that confident like he was then, but I think by the same token I think he’s a much more balanced-out fighter now because he’s with a different trainer that he feels very comfortable with and the promoter [Bob Arum].
 
“I think it’s going to be a very different fight [than the first one] because of Wladimir, I think he’s going to release his missiles a lot sooner, and if he starts punching more, and faster, a lot of people are going to get knocked out sooner. I told him: ‘You don’t miss — your accuracy is unbelievable.’ He’s the most devastating single-punch fighter that I’ve ever had in my life. People misinterpret that. McClellan was a big puncher, Hearns was a big puncher, Lennox was a big puncher, and most fighters I train are, because I train for punching power. They’re all good punchers — but for one punch, no one hurt, no one staggered, just all of a sudden, bright lights, big party, live band, tuxedoes, and the whole room goes black at one time, not a dimmer switch, he’s the best there’s ever been at that [but] he just doesn’t punch as much, he normally plays chess games too much.
 
“There’s no way Sam isn’t going to be able to outbox him, Sam’s going to come in and let his big punches go, so I think it’s going to be a much more explosive-early fight than the first fight. It’s not going to be a boxing contest, and with the mindset of Wladimir, if he comes out and fights the way he says he is, I don’t see it going over six rounds.”
 
Will Klitschko deliver the devastating performance that Steward expects, though? Klitschko’s stand-back-and-jab, technical, long-range boxing style has been working well for him. It seems that Klitschko has only been spurred into a more violent type of action when Steward has become heated in the corner (notably before the start of the last round in the Chambers fight).
 
I do sense, though, that Klitschko is going into Saturday’s fight with a very confident attitude. After all, he beat Peter at a low point in Klitschko’s career, when he had been shaky in two of his last three fights (stopped by Lamon Brewster and dropped by DaVarryl Williamson).
 
Klitschko has not lost in six years and he outclassed and ultimately flattened Chambers, who had beaten Peter a year earlier. I sensed in Klitschko’s gentle needling of Peter at the press conference in Germany that he feels he has established psychological dominance.
 
I am expecting a much better performance by Peter than the one he gave against Vitali Klitschko, but I see a similar sort of fight. I think that Peter will have great difficulty getting past Klitschko’s jab. If Peter wings and misses, I believe that Klitschko will be more inclined to seize advantages by unloading heavy punches than he was five years ago, when Klitschko’s tactics were as much about not getting hit as landing his own shots.
 
Klitschko simply looks a more complete, more confident fighter than when he faced Peter the first time. If Peter could not get the job done against a somewhat uncertain and vulnerable Klitschko in 2005, I cannot see how things are going to change on Saturday.
 
Of course, this is heavyweight boxing. Peter can hit, and one punch can be a winner when the big men are in the ring. I do see a clear and comprehensive win for Klitschko though, not inside six rounds as Steward predicts but more on the lines of a later, punch-accumulation stoppage or possibly a widely scored win on points.
 
I will probably post a Klitschko-Peter wagering suggestion for subscribers later in the week; Kiko Martinez vs Arsen Martirosyan preview will be exclusive to subscribers today.