VICTOR CAYO vs JULIO DIAZ

Former lightweight champion Julio Diaz, no longer the “Kidd” of his nickname, fights for his career at the age of 29 when he meets Victor Cayo, an unbeaten prospect from the Dominican Republic, in the 10-round main event on Friday Night Fights from Hollywood, FL.

In his last fight, Diaz was winning comfortably until he got hit on the chin by the dangerous Rolando Reyes in the fifth round. Now Diaz steps up to junior welter, a move that was perhaps overdue when you consider that he has been boxing as a 135-pounder since he turned professional a decade ago.

Cayo is making his U.S. TV debut and not much is known about him other than his record. His toughest test was to have come in his most recent fight, against Arturo Morua, but the Mexican veteran suffered a cut lip from a right uppercut and the bout was halted in the opening round.

Diaz represents a huge step up in class for Cayo. The gamble by Cayo’s management is whether they have made the match at the right time. In his last two bouts before meeting Reyes, Diaz had looked as fast and as sharp as he has ever done in stopping game slugger David Torres in five rounds and outclassing veteran Fernando Trejo for an easy decision win.

After the way Diaz went out against Reyes, however, there is going to be a big question mark over his ability to take a punch. When you think about it, though, he has only been blown out like that in one other fight, when he was caught cold in the first round by Juan Valenzuela. His stoppage defeats against Jose Luis Castillo and Juan Diaz were of the wearing-down variety, and while Diaz was dropped by Ernesto Zepeda, Dairo Esalas and Miguel Huerta he came back to win all of those bouts inside the distance.

Psychologically, though, it is difficult for a fighter to come back from a devastating defeat such as the one that Diaz suffered against Reyes, especially if the first fight back is one in which the opponent is unbeaten and ambitious.

We saw this on July 18 when Enzo Maccarinelli lost in the third round to the unbeaten Russian, Denis Lebedev. It was Maccarinelli’s first fight since losing by KO against Ola Afolabi. He was saying all the right things before the fight, about how he felt reinvigorated with his new trainer and how he had asked for a tough fight rather than an easy tune-up type of bout, but in the ring Maccarinelli seemed hesitant and unsure of himself. He admitted afterwards that he felt “gun shy” against Lebedev.

Now, in a different weight division, we have a similar situation, with a former champ stepping right back into the ring in a dangerous-looking fight after getting badly stopped.

Diaz might feel that he simply got caught by a lucky punch against Reyes, and he probably feels that with his world-class experience he will know too much for Cayo. He may be right, and it would not surprise me to see him outbox the Dominican in the early stages. Can he keep it up for 10 rounds without getting nailed by a telling blow, however?

In my brief look at Cayo he seemed to be a flashy type of fighter, tall and lanky, hands low, with loads of confidence. The 24-year-old seems to be a sharp puncher rather than what you would call a big hitter — in March he surprisingly had to go the full distance against Wilson Alcorro, a 35-year-old Colombian who had been knocked out in three of his last five fights.

If Cayo stays in range of Diaz with his hands down he could be asking for trouble, because the veteran from Coachella, CA can punch. Cayo might, though, have the reflexes to avoid Diaz’s punches and come right back with counters.

This is an intriguing fight, with a promising but relatively untested newcomer going in with an excellent boxer-puncher who might be vulnerable after a rather alarming defeat.

I like Cayo’s chances in this fight. I have the sense that he could be a genuine world-title aspirant, and, while no two fighters are exactly alike, I see a striking similarity between this fight and Maccarinelli’s bout with Lebedev. Diaz’s experience has to be respected, but I can visualise Cayo nailing him with a decisive hook or right hand, probably in one of the later rounds because I do expect Diaz to be careful and doing a lot of moving in the first part of the fight.