VIC DARCHINYAN vs TOMAS ROJAS

Here’s what is supposed to happen in the Showtime co-main event on Saturday between Vic Darchinyan and Tomas Rojas. After losing an upset decision to Joseph Agbeko in a bantamweight title fight last July, Darchinyan is supposed to come blasting back with a big win over Rojas in their junior bantamweight championship contest.

Darchinyan is surely the strongest 115-pounder in the world, and also the heaviest hitter in the weight class. The Aussie-Armenian should, one might think, be too forceful for Rojas, a 29-year-old from the Mexican port city of Veracruz who has lost 11 of his 44 bouts.

What is supposed to happen doesn’t always work out that way in the boxing ring, though. I think Rojas has a definite chance of upsetting the odds.

At face value, Darchinyan looks likely to win by knockout in this meeting of southpaws. Darchinyan easily defeated Jorge Arce, who holds a KO win over Rojas, and the 33-year-old bomber stopped Luis Maldonado and Cristian Mijares, who each holds a win over Saturday’s opponent.

If you go solely by form, Darchinyan is a level above Rojas.

Maybe the form line is spot on. Darchinyan, after all, is a remarkable fighter. He won his first world title six years ago, in the flyweight division, and he has stopped 10 opponents in world title bouts (involving IBF, WBC and IBO belts) — and it would have been 11 if the Glenn Donaire fight had not ended on a technical decision before Darchinyan could complete the wearing-down process.

Darchinyan was a top-level amateur, and it is well known that in Australia he had to spar with middleweights because no sparmate anywhere near his own weight could last very long with him.

Yet, as formidable as Darchinyan undoubtedly is, he can be beaten. Nonito Donaire stunned him with a perfectly thrown left hook three years ago to hand him his first defeat, and Agbeko outfought and outlasted him in his last fight, although the bout was closely scored and Darchinyan was moving up in weight.

Darchinyan has looked devastating against world-class fighters but he has occasionally laboured in fights he was expected to win easily (I’m thinking of the bouts with Federico Catubay and Victor Burgos). Z Gorres dropped him heavily in their controversial draw in the Philippines although Darchinyan came back strongly and was probably a little unlucky not to have won.

We think of Darchinyan as a monster in the lighter weight classes, but he has been hurt, dropped, stopped and outpointed — he has had his rough patches.

Rojas doesn’t have Darchinyan’s pedigree. Every time Rojas has stepped up in class, he has been beaten — unless you count a fluke second-round knockout win over world title challenger Alejandro Montiel, who suffered a broken ankle.

Looking a little closer, though, there is a reason why Rojas has so many losses on his record. He has fought far from home against excellent boxers, and I’m told he has gone into fights without adequate preparation. In a number of fights, he was brought in to lose.

Usually, though, Rojas has fought well against the favourites. (For instance, one judge had him losing by a single point against Rosendo Alvarez in Nicaragua.) I thought that Rojas was very unlucky to lose to an unbeaten Puerto Rican boxer named Jose Nieves in Florida. Although Rojas was knocked out by Jorge Arce, this was a fight that Rojas was winning until he got caught by a breath-sucking left hook to the body in the sixth round.

Rojas hasn’t lost in more than two years. I thought that he boxed better than he has ever done in last two fights, outclassing fellow-Mexican Everardo Morales in nine rounds to win the IBF interim title, then retaining the belt by giving a boxing lesson to Evans Mbamba, a somewhat inexperienced but strong and dangerous South African southpaw.

Tall and rangy, Rojas is fast and he talented. He uses a hit and move style, but every so often he will stand and let his shots go. I thought he boxed a tactically perfect fight against Mbamba, swaying and slipping away from punches to have the South African winging and missing, peppering his shorter opponent and gliding away again — and making it look easy.

That was against Evans Mbamba, and in front of a roaring hometown crowd in Veracruz. It will be different on Saturday. Rojas meets a fighter of the highest calibre who is stronger and more powerful than he is. Rojas has the movement and the legs to elude Darchinyan, and the hand speed and punch-variety to pick up points. To keep doing this for 12 rounds will be very difficult, though. Darchinyan is a rough, tough, relentless aggressor who also possesses ring savvy. He isn’t just a crude puncher. Darchinyan knows how to create openings with intelligently applied pressure, how to draw an opponent into making mistakes as he rolls his shoulders and moves his upper body this way and that so that the other man isn’t quite sure where the next big shot is coming from.

For an underdog to prevail in a fight such as this, the unfancied boxer has to fight the fight of his life, with total self-belief and almost unwavering concentration, because against a hitter such as Darchinyan one wrong move can see dreams of glory dissolve in an instant.

Upsets against elite champions can be achieved, though, if the circumstances are right. Perhaps they are in this fight. Darchinyan is coming into the fight after suffering a demoralising defeat. He turns 34 next month. Rojas is boxing better than he has ever boxed and he will enter the ring as a champion — he, too, has a world title belt. Being a champion will no doubt have given him the opportunity to get better training. Despite what the odds suggest, Rojas might well be thinking: “This guy’s got the big name, but I’m as good as he is.”

If Rojas is thinking like a champion — which I believe he is — the chances are that he will fight like a champion, too. I see this as a fight that Rojas can win.

My main concern about Rojas is that he might be vulnerable downstairs, and you can be sure that Darchinyan will be looking to pound the Mexican boxer’s willowy body.

If, however, Rojas can keep boxing, moving and hitting, if he can ride the waves of Darchinyan’s attacks and avoid becoming a target for a fight-ending missile, he can come out on top.

These are all big ifs, of course, and it could be that Rojas will be outclassed — but I don’t think so. I could be completely wrong on this, but I’m sensing an upset.