STEFFEN KRETSCHMANN vs DENIS BAKHTOV

Heavyweight prospect Steffen Kretschmann has been guided with extreme care, more so than most up-and-coming boxers. On Friday, though, the tall southpaw is matched in a fight that should give an idea of his potential when he meets veteran Denis Bakhtov in a 12-rounder for Bakhtov’s Pan Asian Boxing Association title.

Kretschmann, 29, was a leading amateur, winning the German title three times and capturing bronze medals at two world championships. He was stopped in the amateurs by American Michael Bennett and Russian Alexander Alexeev, however, which raises a question, to me anyway, about his ruggedness.

It concerns me a little, too, that Kretschmann has been matched with such a high degree of caution. A number of his opponents were much smaller men, and some had been stopped frequently.

Kretschmann’s last three bouts illustrate the take-no-risks approach: the Latvian, Kosobokovs, is a former cruiserweight who had eight losses in 19 bouts; the 39-year-old Otis Tisdale had been stopped in six of his last nine appearances (which includes a couple of one-round blowouts) while Marcel Zeller, although possessing a decent record statistically, is a boxer of little ability who was outclassed in two rounds by Britain’s promising Tyson Fury.

When Kretschmann stopped Zeller in two rounds it was Kretschmann’s 13th bout; Fury did the business in the same number of rounds in only his second fight.

My only look at Kretschmann was when he comfortably outpointed the 358-pound Corey Sanders, who was moving as if in slow motion. Kretschmann picked off the lumbering Sanders at will and easily evaded the occasional sluggish swings tossed in his direction.

So, despite his amateur credentials and unbeaten record, we still do not know if Kretschmann has genuine potential.

Kretschmann’s promoter, Ahmet Oner, says: “This kid is capable of achieving great things,” and he could be right, of course.

Although Kretschmann has been breezing along in his pro career, with 13 wins in a row, and probably hasn’t lost a round, he will have been working hard in the gym under trainer Hans-Jurgen Witte and my suspicion is that the plan was to build up Kretschmann’s strength and stamina — as well as working on technique — so that he will be physically ready for the gruelling tests that lie ahead.

Bakhtov, 31, looks the perfect opponent in a fight that will be televised on Eurosport. He is seasoned, has a respectable record — with four wins in a row — comes to fight and looks the part physically with his thickly muscled frame.

The Russian has lost against the higher-level heavyweights (knocked out by Sinan Samil Sam after putting up a game stand, outclassed over 12 rounds by Juan Carlos Gomez) but he has been able to beat the lesser-quality types — and he has won twice in the U.K. when brought in as the opponent, so he is capable of springing upsets. He is, then, a huge step up from the type of opponents that Kretschmann has been meeting but, at the same, time, shouldn’t be too dangerous.

The people who guide Kretschmann at Arena Box-Promotion have obviously studied Bakhtov closely (and at first hand, as they promoted Bakhtov’s fight with Gomez). Bakhtov is strong and awkward, rather slow, and on the short side for a modern-day heavyweight, and he likes to get up close and go to work with a smothering, wearing-down type of attack. The much taller Kretschmann should be able to hit Bakhtov freely from his southpaw stance and move around him to prevent the veteran from bulling him out of his stride and mauling him around too much.

Kretschmann has never been past eight rounds, though. If Bakhtov — who is willing and game — can endure early punishment there is a chance that he can start to dig in and make Kretschmann uncomfortable with sheer stubbornness and pressure.

I think it is much more likely, though, that Kretschmann, with his height, reach, southpaw style and superior boxing ability, will score points early and stave off Bakhtov in the later rounds — should the fight go that far.

Bakhtov is fairly easy to hit, and a stoppage win for Kretschmann could happen if he can land enough shots to get the referee concerned about Bakhtov’s well being. I don’t see a blowout, but I think that Kretschmann might be able to get a punch-accumulation type of stoppage in about 10 or 11 rounds.