SERGEI DZINZIRUK vs JOEL JULIO

Heavy hitting Joel Julio has steadily fought his way back after being completely outboxed by Carlos Quintana at Caesars Palace two years ago and now, after seven wins in a row, he gets a world title chance when he takes on the undefeated WBO junior middle champ Sergei Dzinziruk in Germany on Saturday.

Not too long ago I would have given Julio little chance in this fight, especially in Germany, where the Ukrainian Dzinziruk is domiciled and has had most of his fights.

However, Dzinziruk had a desperate struggle in his last fight when he barely outpointed Lukas Konecny, from the Czech Republic.

Konecny, a rough handful but a boxer of no great distinction, took the fight to the taller, rangier Dzinziruk and seemed to be outworking him in a number of rounds.

Dzinziruk dug down and gritted out the win, but it was a close call. He had to let his hands go and win on tenacity more than technique. It was surprising to see the normally stylish and serene Dzinziruk taken out of his stride like this, and it opens the door to the possibility that Julio, with a style based on pressure and power, might be able to force the Ukrainian into the sort of physical fight that would give the Colombian challenger his best chance.

Julio seems to be have improved since the bad night against Quintana. He jabs more and he has a more measured, professional look when he lets his hands go — setting up his punches better than in his earlier fights. I think that he might have struggled to make 147 pounds, and in the fight with Quintana he was boxing in an outdoor arena in the searing heat of a Las Vegas summer.

Quintana had to contend with the exact-same conditions, true, but the Puerto Rican boxed a much more relaxed type of fight; Julio was finding it hard going as he tried to land his big punches and was made to miss and kept getting picked off. You could see the stamina draining out of Julio and he showed gameness in getting to the final bell while still doing his best to turn things around.

Julio has improved and he has looked very strong in his recent fights, so much so that I think the 23-year-old challenger has a good chance. Dzinziruk is a skilled technician but he has had problems with physical types who take it to him and rough him up a bit. (Prior to the fight with Konecny, Dzinziruk didn’t have it all his own way by any means against Sebastian Lujan, who is a welterweight and not as talented or as hard hitting as Julio.) At 32, Dzinziruk could have reached the stage where he is going to be vulnerable to a dangerous, ambitious, much younger opponent.

Despite all this, I will go with the far more experienced champion. Even though Dzinziruk had his difficulties he still found a way to win in the fight with Konecny. Dzinziruk has a strong amateur background that includes boxing in the Olympics in 1996 and winning silver medals in the European and world championships, and as a professional he has been the 12-round distance five times. Konecy is a rugged swarmer while Julio is more of straightforward sort of fighter, which might allow Dzinziruk to get into the sort of groove in which he avoids his opponent’s shots and gets off with counter punches. He has, too, the southpaw style that might always be a problem for Julio, who could never get to grips with Quintana’s stance. Julio hasn’t faced a left-hander since the Quintana loss and if he finds himself trying to figure things out he could see too many rounds slipping away from him.

I see Dzinziruk winning by decision in a competitive fight. I like the excitement that Julio generates when he fights and I do feel his time to be a world champion will come — I just don’t think it will be on Saturday.