SAM SEXTON vs MARTIN ROGAN

Sometimes an upset is so shocking that the boxer who wins finds himself the underdog in the rematch. This happened in fights such as Evander Holyfield-Mike Tyson II and in the return bouts between Vernon Forrest and Shane Mosley and Nehomar Cermeno and Cristian Mijares. The feeling in the boxing fraternity was that the favourite would get it right second time around, which is the prevailing sentiment when Sam Sexton meets Martin Rogan in a rematch for the Commonwealth heavyweight title in Belfast on Friday, with Sky televising in the U.K.

When Sexton challenged Rogan for the title last May it was generally thought that he would get knocked out, which he almost did in the eighth round. What saved Sexton was a confused incident when he spat out his gum shield when he seemed to be a punch or two away from being stopped. Rogan sportingly stood back, only to lose the fight in that same round due to an ugly swelling under his left eye.

This time Rogan promises to finish the job. Once again he has home-ground advantage. Promoter Frank Warren has promised the winner a fight with British champion Danny Williams.

Rogan has switched trainers, leaving the successful John Breen to work with a less well-known Belfast trainer named Paul McCullach. He says simply that it was time to move on. McCullach believes he has succeeded in improving Rogan’s technique and that the heavy-handed 38-year-old will show controlled aggression and not simply go in slugging. “I’ve been very impressed with him and very surprised because it’s very hard to change old ways,” McCullach told the Belfast Telegraph.

“Sam took advantage of my sportsmanship and I’ll make him pay for that,” Rogan told a media conference. “This time there’s a better fighter coming into the ring called Martin Rogan. This fight isn’t going the distance. I think it’ll be early.”

Sexton, from Norwich in England’s Eastern Counties, says that what he did before he will do again. As the underdog, he says he feels no pressure. “He goes on about the last fight but it’s this fight that matters now,” Sexton told the Belfast media conference.

The first fight was a thriller, Sexton scored well early, and Rogan was in trouble when a swelling started to push his eye shut from underneath. In the eighth round, though, he had Sexton hanging by a thread. If it hadn’t been for the eye injury, Rogan probably would have won.

As Sexton says, however, this is a different fight. Sexton, 25, must surely have gained confidence from his performance in the last fight, when he was able to score sharply with jabs and right hands. He now knows what it is like to box in front of a passionate crowd that is roaring for his opponent, and even though his win in May was controversial, the fact is that it was Sexton who had his hand raised.

Both were winners of the popular Prizefighter tournament and each was having his 13th professional fight when they met in May, but Rogan was seen as the tougher, stronger, more reliable and more seasoned fighter, Rogan went into the Sexton fight after having scored consecutive upset wins over Audley Harrison and Matt Skelton, while Sexton had been stopped by prospect Derek Chisora in his stiffest test. In that fight, Sexton started well but seemed to tire quickly.

There were doubts over Sexton’s durability from his days as an England amateur international when he was stopped by Australia’s Adam Forsyth and Ukrainian Vyacheslav Glazkov. He was outgunned by these Olympic competitors, each of whom knocked him down.

Sexton has good boxing ability, though, and he moves well for a bulky 240-pounder. Winning Prizefighter boosted his self-belief and he fought like a winner in his unlikely victory over Rogan.

Was it a fluke result last time, though, a win that would have been a loss had it not been for Rogan’s closing eye combined with the Belfast boxer’s failure to finish an opponent who seemed to be at his mercy? We will find out on Friday.

Sexton stood up to Rogan’s pressure in the last fight, and although the English heavyweight was the one who was wobbling on the edge of defeat it shouldn’t be overlooked that he hurt Rogan in the second and seventh rounds.

I agree with the oddsmakers that Rogan should be the favourite, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he did what he was supposed to do last time and battered Sexton into defeat inside the distance. However, I’m thinking that Sexton might have grown as a fighter since May and it appears to me that he genuinely believes that he has Rogan’s number.

Sexton’s chin and stamina can be considered questionable, but he is the smoother boxer, a bit quicker, and he’s the younger man by 13 years, which must help a bit. I sway very slightly Sexton’s way in a fight that probably won’t go the distance, whoever wins.