ROBERT GUERRERO vs MALCOLM KLASSEN

South African fighters have been performed with distinction in the U.S. this year. Ali Funeka almost beat Nate Campbell, and Isaac Hlatshwayo outscored Delvin Rodriguez. Next up is Malcolm Klassen, who defends his IBF junior lightweight title against Robert Guerrero on HBO’s Juan Diaz-Paulie Malignaggi show on Saturday.

Guerrero is the clear favourite. He is the bigger man, the puncher in the fight and the house fighter on a Golden Boy Promotions show. Klassen, though, gave a superb display of boxing and punching in his last fight when he wrecked the taller, supposedly bigger-punching Cassius Baloyi in seven rounds to become champion, whereas Guerrero was unimpressive in his last two fights.

My writer pal Phil Woolever would probably see this as what he would call a “destiny” fight. Guerrero has struggled twice in a row, so, Phil might reason, he is now “destined” to have a great night. It could work out that way, too. Guerrero is probably one of those fighters who performs at his best when the stakes are highest, as when he went to Denmark to stop Spend Abazi and in his knockout win over Gamaliel Diaz in their rematch.

Guerrero has trained at high altitude at Big Bear for this fight and has sparred with Shane Mosley. He will be as ready as he can be.

Klassen has fought only once outside of South Africa but he does seem to be an extremely determined young man. He first won the IBF title by beating Australian-based Gairy St. Clair on a split decision in November 2006 but lost it just five months later when he was outpointed by fellow-South African Mzonke Fana in another split decision.

This was a very disappointing result for Klassen, even though Fana is probably a much better fighter than his quick KO loss against Marco Antonio Barrera would suggest. From reports, Klassen started strongly but faded down the stretch and was almost stopped in the last round.

I would think that Klassen has learned a lesson from that fight and worked harder on his conditioning. A loss such as this can be a learning experience for a fighter as long as the lesson is taken to heart.

Klassen has stopped five opponents in a row since losing to Fana, but none of those fights has gone past the seventh round. His staying power in a long, hard fight therefore remains in doubt.

Guerrero is a powerful fighter who has looked borderline sensational in some of his wins. He flattened the normally durable Martin Honorio with one big left hand shot from his southpaw stance and he crushed veteran Edel Ruiz with a body blow in another one-punch finish. If Guerrero can land a hammer blow early in the fight he could achieve a spectacular result. Failing this, he might be able to use his size and strength to wear down Klassen, in the same way that he broke down Gamaliel Diaz (in the rematch) and Eric Aiken.

Then, however, we have Guerrero’s last two fights to consider.

In his bout with the little known Indonesian, Daud Cino Yordan, in March, Guerrero was having a lot of trouble with his opponent’s speed and, cut over the right eye from a clash of heads, he looked relieved to get out of the fight on a no decision in the second round.

Three months later, Guerrero seemed oddly tentative against veteran Efren Hinojosa and although he was winning every round he never had the 37-year-old in trouble. The fight most likely would have gone the distance if Hinojosa had not retired due to an arm injury after eight rounds.

Klassen, meanwhile, was highly impressive in his last two fights, knocking out old campaigner Manuel Medina in two rounds and then stopping Baloyi in seven.

Of course, Medina, at the age of 38, was at the end of a long road, while Baloyi, 34 years old and a professional boxer for 15 years, might have grown old overnight, as they say. These results might have flattered Klassen.

I was all set to pull the trigger and pick Guerrero, but this week I had my first chance to see the video of Klassen’s fight with Baloyi, and it changed my mind. Klassen’s hand speed was exceptional. He fired off rapid-fire bursts, often finishing with the left hook. He wobbled Baloyi badly with a left hook just before the bell ended round one, rocked him several times in the ensuing rounds and then had him reeling with a series of big right hands in the seventh to bring the referee’s intervention.

Klassen fought with a real zest, and at one point he even did a Pernell Whitaker-type move, ducking down low and then scooting across the ring to leave Baloyi standing and looking at the spot where Klassen had just been.

There seemed almost a joy to Klassen's fighting that night, whereas Guerrero has been fighting under an emotional burden due to his wife’s battle with leukaemia, which to everyone’s relief is currently in remission. Yet, back on the big stage, Guerrero could be primed to produce one of his more explosive performances — the “destiny” angle.

Still, if one attaches any credence at all to current form, Klassen would have to be considered the in-form fighter.

I am in two minds about this fight. Guerrero is the logical winner: too big, too strong, too hard a puncher and a southpaw who is boxing on his promoter’s show. Yet I have a mental picture of Klassen’s movement and hand speed giving Guerrero considerable problems.

Without a great deal of confidence, I’m going to go with Klassen to pull off what I think would be a considerable upset by outpointing Guerrero. (If Guerrero wins, it will almost certainly be by KO.)

Sunday: Aug. 23: Guerrero surprised me here by using a "boxing" style to outpoint Klassen, who fought in spurts. I edited the preview today to fix an error about Klassen never having fought outside of South Africa before — he won a fight in the U.K. five years ago and apparently greatly impressed observers.