PRIZEFIGHTER: The super bantams

UPDATED: The Prizefighter series is still going strong in the U.K., and next up are the super bantams, with a Saturday night presentation on Sky Sports.

Picking winners in these matches is in many cases a roll of the dice.

With the format of three rounds, the better boxers don’t always win. A busy fighter can outhustle a more talented one over the short distance. A seasoned, solid professional might get started too late, winning the last round after losing the first two. A hard puncher might just be getting his range when the final bell sounds.

The British sportsbooks seem to have priced the field correctly; no oddsmaker errors here. With Prizefighter, though, you just don’t know what will happen. That’s why the series still holds its appeal. In so many fights today, the winner is obvious even before a punch is thrown. The new Telefutura series, for instance, simply features Golden Boy prospects beating up opponents in the main events — no suspense there. In Prizefighter, though, anything can happen. Here is a look at the quarterfinals.

MARK MORAN vs WILLIE CASEY

Graham’s odds: Moran -140; Casey +120

Mark Moran was a Commonwealth Games bronze medallist, so he has a good amateur background. A southpaw from Liverpool, he stepped a bit out of his class in his last fight, 13 months ago, when he lost in six rounds to Jason Booth for the British super bantam title. Moran started promisingly but suffered a cut over the eye from a clash of heads and the more seasoned Booth took over the fight from the third round. It was Moran’s first defeat, and he hasn’t boxed since.

Casey, like Moran, is 28. This tough-looking Irish boxer calls himself Big Bang, and he can clearly hit, with four stoppage wins in his five consecutive victories. He had a surprising win in his last fight when he stopped the former Canadian amateur champion Tyson Cave in eight rounds in Toronto, ending the unbeaten run of the Nova Scotia boxer. Cave was apparently outboxing Casey for most of the early rounds, though, before the Irish fighter wore him down with body punches. I haven’t seen Casey but I gather that he is a bit slow although heavy handed, and I also believe he is a southpaw although reports of his fights don’t mention this — in a photo I saw of the Irish boxer he is in the southpaw posture.

In a longer fight, say six rounds, I would pick Casey. In a three-rounder, can he catch up with the more experienced, probably more skilled Moran? For two rounds Moran was probably beating the accomplished Jason Booth. Moran’s inactivity does concern me a bit, though. I think the oddsmakers have it right in making Moran the slight favourite. I haven’t seen Casey and I have no solid opinion here, maybe a sway towards Moran, but it looks a toss-up and I do have a concern over Moran's surgery last year when a tumour was removed from his spine. He says he feels fantastic and that he is moving much better after the operation, but it does put a doubt in my mind.

JAMIE ARTHUR vs ROBBIE TURLEY

Graham’s odds: Arthur -350; Turley +250

Jamie Arthur is for me the clearest favourite in the quarterfinals. This Commonwealth Games gold medallist from Manchester has fought in higher class than his opponent, Robbie Turley. In his last fight, Arthur fought gamely against the talented Martin Lindsay, surviving two second-round knockdowns and a cut over the eye to last the 12 rounds with the British featherweight champion.

Both Arthur and his opponent, Robbie Turley, are moving down in weight from the featherweight division.

Turley apparently doesn’t always box with a lot of confidence. The formline emphatically points to a win for Arthur as he knocked out a boxer named Dai Davies in two rounds whereas Davies beat Turley: although Turley suffered a cut over the eye I understand that Davies was well winning the contest. Arthur simply looks the better fighter in this all-Welsh contest.

JOSH WALE vs ESHAM PICKERING

Graham’s odds: Wale -145; Pickering +125

We have youth vs experience in the meeting between the 22-year-old Josh Wale and former European champion Esham Pickering, who is 33.

Both men lost on points to Londoner Matthew Marsh in competitive contests but I have the sense that Pickering is coming to the end of his career. Pickering was badly knocked out in his last fight against an undefeated Ukrainian prospect. He was once a clever boxer with good movement, and he was capable of being dangerous with quick hooks and right hands, but in recent bouts Pickering has been far more hittable.

Wale is a gritty, busy type of fighter but he can be quite easy to hit and he suffered a badly swollen right eye, with a cut over the left eye, in a three-round defeat against the useful Harry Ramogoadi.

In an eight-rounder or 10-rounder I might go with the much more seasoned Pickering, but in a three-rounder I think that Wale will be able to edge out a win on energy and workrate.

RICKY OWEN vs GAVIN REID

Graham’s odds: Owen -280; Reid +220

The U.K. sportsbooks have Owen a wide favourite here, but I am not so sure. Owen was a Welsh amateur champion and he has the style that can win the tournament — a clever and perhaps somewhat awkward southpaw who looks good when he puts his punches together. He is unbeaten, too. However, Owen suffered a bad cut over the eye in his last fight — the referee made three inspections — and he hasn’t boxed for 13 months.

Reid isn’t as skilled as Own but he is a tough, willing, fighter. He has twice beaten boxers with unbeaten records, and Reid fought a draw with a bigger, stronger fighter named Ben Jones. The 28-year-old hasn’t been matched in too many easy fights.

The records of the boxers are a bit misleading: Owen has won 11 in a row, including a points win over a tough former international-class amateur from Bulgaria named Alexander Vladimorov, but Reid, while he has lost five of 12 bouts, has faced the stiffer competition.

Reid is likely to go right at his opponent, throwing punches and seeking to take the southpaw out of his stride. I think that Owen should be able to win with his better boxing ability but in a three-rounder, if Owen takes a round to get going after his layoff, an upset is not out of the question.