OLYMPIC SEMI FINALS: What to look for in each of the weight classes

It’s often been a struggle to watch, but the Olympics are now heading into the most interesting stage with the semi-finals on Friday and the gold-medal bouts on Saturday. I stuck with it and decided I had enough information for a preview of the semi-finals. Most of my picks are tentative. With scoring punches not always being scored, and the ever-present threat of a two-point warning, these are bouts where the better boxers don’t always win. The odds I have seen posted have looked spot-on: I certainly haven’t seen any odds that looked out of kilter for the semis, and my own odds are mostly going to be close to those currently available although I think mine will be tighter in some cases. OK, here goes, a look at every semi-final from the light-flyweight to the super heavyweight division.

LIGHT-FLYWEIGHT

China’s Zou Shiming, bronze medallist in Athens and twice world champion, is the hot favourite for the gold. He meets Paddy Barnes, one of three Irish boxers through to the semis. Barnes, a 21-year-old from Belfast, at first glance looks out of his depth. He was beaten by Zou in the quarterfinals of the world championships in Chicago last year and now he meets him on his opponent’s home turf in front of a partisan Beijing crowd. Barnes has fought furiously in the Games, though, going right into the attack and throwing lots of punches. Funnily enough, I think that the pressure is going to be on Zou rather than on Barnes. The long-armed, counter-punching Chinese boxer should win, but I give Barnes a chance.

ODDS: Zou -600; Barnes +400.

Cuban southpaw Yampier Hernandez showed what he can do when he feels like it when he cut loose a blistering array of punches to dominate the final round against his Brazilian opponent in the quarter finals. He starts a clear favourite over Purevddorjiin Serdamba, the Mongolian who eliminated U.S. light-flyweight Luis Yanez. Serdamba is a quick southpaw but he lost by a margin of 34-7 to Russia’s David Ayrapetyan in the first stage of the worlds. Hernandez looks too classy for him.

ODDS:Hernandez -450; Serdamba +300.

FLYWEIGHT

Georgy Balakshin, Russia’s three-time European champion, lost to Cuban ace Yuriorkis Gamboa in the Athens quarterfinals. He meets another Cuban on Friday, the 30-year-old team captain Andris Laffita, in a clash of seasoned southpaws. These are two extremely smart boxers, the Cuban a bit faster, Balakshin probably the stronger. I think that the Russian can have the narrow advantage with accuracy and self-control, but Laffita has a way of frustrating his opponents by making them miss and picking them off — if Balakshin gets rattled and falls behind he will be in trouble.

ODDS: Balakshin -120; Laffita +100.

Thailand’s very experienced Somjit Jongjohor has a style that’s very difficult for his opponents to overcome, and he is expected to defeat the 21-year-old Tajikstan southpaw Anvar Yunusov. With long arms and excellent punch-anticipation, Somjit stays back, shoots in long right hands that score points, then moves away before the other man can hit him back. A world amateur champion, Somjit lost to Yuriorkis Gamboa in his opening bout in Athens. Yunusov is a clever boxer who holds his hands low, darts in and darts out, but the Thai’s experience and long right hand look like being too much for him.

ODDS: Somjit -400; Yunusov +250.

BANTAM

Cuba’s Yankiel Leon has a pleasing, pro style, with pressure and good hooks to head and body (the body punches are seldom counted as scoring blows, of course) and I think he will be too strong for Bruno Julie, a southpaw from Mauritius. Julie has ability, though, and his cute moves had his Venezuelan opponent looking confused in the semi finals.

ODDS: Leon -400; Julie +250.

Enkhbatyn Badar-Uugan of Mongolia won a silver medal in the world championships and is a clear favourite over Veaceslav Gojan, from Moldova, but my notes describe Gojan as “a bundle of energy”. Badar-Uugan looked strong and versatile in my two looks at him. He has comfortably won each of his three bouts in Beijing, and he dropped Ireland’s John Joseph Nevin with a lovely right hand — knockdowns such as this are rare in Olympic boxing. Gojan, who eliminated the Chinese boxer, has a confident look, though, and his busy, speedy style could give the Mongolian fighter some problems.

ODDS: Badar-Uugan -380; Gojan +220.

FEATHERWEIGHT

If there is one red-hot favourite in the semis it has to be the 20-year-old Ukrainian southpaw Vasyl Lomachenko, who, for me, has been the star of the Games. The world championships silver medallist is fast, sharp and skilled, and he has hit a fantastic run of form in Beijing. I will be simply astonished if he loses to Turkey’s 22-year-old Yakup Kilic, who although a world championships bronze medal winner looks outclassed here.

ODDS: Lomachenko -2800; Kilic +800.

I like the look of Khadafi Djelkhir, an energetic pressure fighter from France who will make a good professional, but he meets a seasoned, cagey counter puncher in Shahin Imranov of Azerbaijan, a European championships silver medallist who lost in his second bout in the Athens Games. My worry about Djelkhir is that he has expended a lot of energy in his three qualifying bouts, which included a somewhat disputed win over America’s Raynell Williams and a rousing victory over Mexico’s Arturo Santos (who also looks excellent pro material). Imranov eliminated the Cuban so must be respected, but if Djelkhir isn’t a bit burned out he should take this on workrate — he throws so many punches that some have to be registered as scoring blows.

ODDS: Djelkhir -180; Imranov +140.

LIGHTWEIGHT

The featherweight gold medallist in Athens, Russia’s Alexey Tischenko is now going for lightweight glory. An excellent ring mechanic and one of my favourites at the Games, Tischenko looks a class above Armenian Hrachik Javakhyan, a nice boxer but who is likely to be well beaten.

ODDS: Tischenko -1000; Javakhyan +600.

Pro style Cuban Yordenis Ugas is another of the boxers who has greatly impressed me in Beijing. He could have difficulty against the awkward, hit-and-move southpaw Daouda Sow, from France, but I think that Ugas will be too strong and insistent for his shifty opponent.

ODDS: Ugas -300; Sow +220.

LIGHT-WELTER

Baby-faced Cuban southpaw Rosniel Iglesias has a really tough task against reigning Olympic champion Manus Boonjumnong, a 28-year-old Thai with a long-reaching, “preying mantis” style. The Thai has a super-confident look, outscoring his opponents from the outside and grinning at their failed attempts to land punches on him, but I have a feeling that the quick, talented Cuban might be able to score an upset if he can just keep steady, maintain a tight defence against the Thai’s right hand and seize every opportunity to slip into range to land swift punches. It would be a wonderful performance by the 20-year-old Iglesias if he could win against such a strong and mature opponent, but I think he can do it in amateur boxing’s equivalent of Wilfred Benitez outpointing Antonio Cervantes.

ODDS: Boonjumjong -140; Iglesias +120.

Alexis Vastine, France’s world championships quarter finalist, has the style that scores points at the Olympics — tall and rangy, he is accurate with the right hand from the outside and the button-pushing judges are able to see and record his punches. However, I lean a bit towards Vastine’s opponent, the southpaw Felix Diaz, from the Dominican Republic. Diaz is quick and classy, and while it will be difficult for him to get in scoring punches without being timed by Vastine’s right hand, I think he can just about pull it off for a slight upset.

ODDS: Vastine -120; Diaz +100.

WELTERWEIGHT

China has high hopes for Silamu Hanati , a strong, fast boxer-puncher with an outstanding left hook to the body, but Cuba’s 21-year-old Carlos Banteux, a Pan American Games gold medallist who was voted best fighter in the Cuban championships, is going to be hard to beat. Anywhere but Beijing I would pick the Cuban, but Hanati, a world championships bronze medallist, might be able to absorb some of the crowd’s energy and reach within himself to win narrowly after a close, tense bout.

ODDS: Hanati -115; Banteux +105.

Strong and steady southpaw Bakyht Sarsekbaev of Kazakhstan meets a resolute fighter in Jungjoo Kim, the Korean who upset America’s gold-medal favourite Demetrius Andrade. I was leaning a little towards Kim, but I think that the gruelling bout with Andrade, when he had to produce the fight of his life, might have taken something out of the Korean world championships bronze medallist, and for this reason alone I give a very slight edge to Sarsekbaev.

ODDS: Sarsekbaev -110; Kim +100.

MIDDLEWEIGHT

In the first of two Britain vs Ireland semis, clever London southpaw James DeGale has a much-anticipated bout with Dublin’s Darren Sutherland. DeGale has risen to a whole new level in Beijing, seeing off America’s Shawn Estrada and Olympic welter gold medallist Artayev on his way to the semis. But Sutherland, the hard-hitting “black Irishman” (that’s how he describes himself) has also been fighting exceptionally well in Beijing, and he impressively avenged a previous loss by battering out a widely scored win over worlds silver medallist Blanco, of Venezuela. DeGale will be hoping to do some avenging of his own, having lost four times to Sutherland in five meetings. Despite Sutherland’s past successes against DeGale, I make this a very close bout. I think that Sutherland’s strength and punching power can overcome DeGale’s slickness and adept countering, but this might come down to which boxer gets reward from the button-pushers: Sutherland with his hooks and right hands or DeGale with his accurate, “obvious” scoring shots with the southpaw left hand.

ODDS: Sutherland -165; DeGale +135.

Cuba’s Emilio Correa seeks to follow in the footsteps of his father, who was a welterweight gold medallist in the 1972 Olympics. Tall and stylish, Correa struggled in the quarterfinals and he meets an awkwardly effective boxer in Vijender Kumar, who has assured India of its first boxing medal. Kumar is fast and his punches come from all angles, including bolo-type right hands. I prefer the textbook orthodoxy of Correa but this could be an uncomfortably close call.

ODDS: Correa -350; Kumar +220.

LIGHT-HEAVY

The second Britain-Ireland match of the semis pits Tony Jeffries, from Sunderland in northeast England, against Dublin’s Kenny Egan. Jeffries, with his upright, technical style, has been boxing very well in Beijing but Egan seems to have reached another level with some skilful displays of boxing and punching from his southpaw stance. This is likely to be a very competitive bout but I think the Irish boxer has the style and the smart moves to offset Jeffries’s jab-and-right-hand method.

ODDS: Egan -180; Jeffries +140.

The style of China’s Zhang Xiopiong has been described as “effective ugliness” by TV analyst Teddy Atlas but the tall, awkward boxer is assured of at least a bronze medal. Zhang has beaten boxers with greater talent simply by closing them down with a method that involves hitting, moving and grabbing. Zhang meets the world championships bronze medallist Yerekbulan Shynaliyev, of Kazakhstan, a competent, cagey southpaw who also knows how to frustrate an opponent. Shynaliyev attracted attention in the quarterfinals when he won by DQ after being bitten on the neck by his opponent from Tajikstan. I fear that Zhang against Shynaliyev could be a bit of a scramble, but the enthusiasm of the crowd will make it seem more exciting than it really is. I make Shynaliyev the better boxer and he should win — but, a word of caution, Zhang seems to make a habit of beating so-called better boxers.

ODDS: Shynaliyev -150; Zhang +120.

HEAVYWEIGHT

America’s only boxer in the semis, Deontay Wilder from Tuscaloosa, AL, faces an uphill struggle against the unorthodox but hard-to-beat Italian world champion Clemente Russo. Wilder is big and strong, but his lack of experience showed when he barely beat a Moroccan of modest ability in the quarterfinals. Wilder got hit far too easily by right hands in that bout, and, while Russo’s boxing may be sloppy (the word chosen by TV commentator Bob Papa) he is very good at getting his right hand on target. The Italian’s style — lots of movement, sudden attacks — is likely to confound the straightforward, mechanical Wilder. It would be a tremendous achievement by Wilder if he could upset the odds and advance to the final, but Russo looks too seasoned for him.

ODDS: Russo -600; Wilder +400.

Russian heavyweight Rakhim Chakhiyev has been disappointingly crude for a world championships silver medalist but then his fellow-southpaw opponent Osmai Acosta is a long way from being Cuba’s next Felix Savon or Teofilo Stevenson. Chakhiyev looks strong and determined, and I liked the way he attacked in the final round to make sure of a win over his French opponent in the quarterfinals. Acosta, the Pan Am gold medallist, moves quite well and has a useful left hand but I think Chakhiyev can outlast and outwill him in a close, gruelling bout.

ODDS: Chakhiyev -150; Acosta +120.

SUPER HEAVY

I was quite impressed with the boxing technique of China’s fourth semi finalist, Zhang Zhilei, who moves well for such a big man and punches with authority from his southpaw stance (he floored his opponent from Kazakhstan in the quarter finals). Zhang has a tough job in the semis, though, when he meets Ukrainian Vyacheslav Glaskov, who defeated the Chinese boxer in the semi finals of last year’s world championships. Glaskov showed a professional-like, pressure-fighting style when he defeated Cuba’s Alfonso, but Zhang looks like a boxer who has improved — and of course the Beijing setting is a huge plus for China’s representative. I think that Glaskov can battle his way to a narrow win but he will have to take some heavy left hands and I would not be surprised at all if Zhang gets his revenge.

ODDS: Zhang +120; Glaskov -140.

Britain’s 6ft 7ins David Price pulled off one of the big surprises of the Games when he stopped the formidable Russian, Timurziev, and now he faces another top-class opponent in Roberto Cammarelle, the world champion from Italy. Price seems full of confidence and the British team coach, Terry Edwards, believes that the big fellow can emulate the gold-medal super-heavy success of Audley Harrison eight years ago in Sydney, telling sportswriter Alan Hubbard: “Dave is more mobile than Audley, he hits harder and has more heart.” Cammarelle has not looked all that impressive in Beijing. He has a relaxed style and it has seemed to me that he could have fought harder, but perhaps he was just doing enough to get by and conserving his resources for tougher challenges. I am expecting Cammarelle to stay back and seek to score with counter punches in what could be a chess match type of contest. I think the Italian will find enough openings to eke out a win, but Price is a well coordinated boxer and that big right hand makes him extremely dangerous.

ODDS: Cammarelle -170; Price +140.