OLEYDONG SITHSAMERCHAI vs JUAN PALACIOS

It’s going to be boxer against fighter in Thailand on Friday when the stylish southpaw Oleydong Sithsamerchai is due to defend his WBC 105-pound title against Nicaraguan banger Juan Palacios.

This, to me, is one of those fights where it is very hard to get a clear idea of the possible outcome.

Oleydong, 24, is a skilled boxer with an impressive record of 32 wins in a row, but only eight stoppages, which indicates he is not a seriously hard hitter.

Palacios, 29, holder of the interim title, has won his last 15 bouts and he hasn’t been beaten since losing a split decision to Jose Antonio Aguirre in Mexico seven years ago.

Form favours Palacios because he stopped Omar Soto in the 10th round whereas the Puerto Rican boxer fought Oleydong almost evenly for 12 rounds, losing by split decision in a contest that was one point on one card from being a draw.

Form can be devilishly deceptive, though, as we discussed in last weekend’s fight between Vitali Tajbert and Humberto Gutierrez. Different fighters make different fights, and circumstances have to be considered.

The circumstances on Friday at first glance favour Oleydong. He is boxing at home, and it is very rare for Thai boxers to lose world titles when they are on familiar territory, although of course it has happened.

Palacios seems to travel well, though, having won in Mexico, Puerto Rico and China.

Oleydong defeated the excellent Eagle Den Junlaphan and he beat the world-class Poonsawat, but last May he boxed poorly against Muhammad Rachman, winning by technical decision in 11 rounds when the 37-year-old Indonesian suffered cuts over both eyes. Oleydong was more dominant than the close scores suggested because he lost two points under then WBC’s head-clash rule, but even so this was not the sort of precise and polished performance that the Thais were used to seeing from him.

Palacios has stopped his last five opponents and he looked powerful when stopping Teruo Misawa on Don King’s show in Chengdu, China, a year ago when he withstood early attacks from the Japanese fighter and came on strongly to win in seven rounds despite suffering a cut over the left eye. This was my only look at Palacios, and he impressed me with his spirited style of fighting and the way he kept the pressure on his opponent.

In his last fight, Palacios was again relentless and hard hitting as he stopped Erik Ramirez in the 10th round in Mexico.

Oleydong will clearly need to be sharper for this fight than he was when meeting Rachman, but I believe the Thai expected an easy fight with his much older opponent and performed below his best. Oleydong’s people know that Palacios is dangerous, and he will have prepared accordingly.

When this fight first appeared in the BoxRec and espn.com schedules I thought that, with home advantage, Oleydong would most likely box his way to a win on points, and I do make him the betting favourite. I am now starting to wonder, though, whether Palacios might be one of those special types of fighter that emerge from Central and South America every so often. If he is, he can win, with his power and pressure overcoming the clever boxing and accurate southpaw hitting of the Thai boxer.

Palacios will probably be outscored early, but I’m thinking that he might be able to start getting through with his heavy hooks and right hands in the later rounds. He will have to be disciplined, because winging wildly won’t get the job done against a smart stylist such as Oleydong, but I’m guessing that Palacios has the ring knowledge to apply force in a smart way and gradually close the points gap to snatch victory in the late rounds, most likely by decision.