NIKOLAI VALUEV vs RUSLAN CHAGAEV

Two years after their very close fight in Germany, Niklolai Valuev and Ruslan Chagaev meet again on Saturday to decide who is the rightful WBA heavyweight champion. Chagaev is termed “champion in recess” after injury and illness caused inactivity, with Valuev capturing the WBA “regular” title.

Last time Valuev was the oddsmakers’ favourite but in previewing the fight I wrote that I sensed an upset. The southpaw Chagaev had the intelligence and boxing ability, I thought, to score points without taking too much punishment and was tough enough to withstand Valuev’s punches when he did get caught.

In the event, Chagaev boxed a perfect fight. He moved in to land crisp shots and immediately moved away, using the ring to have Valuev lunging and reaching with his punches. Chagaev landed the sort of eye-catching punches that impress the judges, and although he was under pressure at several points in the fight he boxed and fought his way through the difficult patches.

So, can Chagaev do it again?

The odds are close to even money this time. Chagaev has not been impressive in his two fights since beating Valuev. He won clearly but struggled somewhat against the limited British oldie, Matt Skelton, and then he had a surprisingly difficult fight against the muscled but nothing-special Carl Davis Drummond. Chagaev suffered a cut over the eye and escaped with a technical decision win after six rounds, but there were times when Drummond seemed to be hitting him far too easily.

It could have been merely a bad night — after all, Chagaev had been inactive for 13 months — but the 30-year-old Uzbek looked very beatable that night.

Chagaev has had his problems since becoming champion. He was supposed to have boxed Sultan Ibragimov in a unification title fight but pulled out due to what has been called a “mystery illness”. His promoter, Universum, described Chagaev’s condition as “an acute inflammation of the body” but there was a suspicion that he had been suffering from hepatitis B.

Then, in May 2008, a rematch with Valuev had to be postponed when Chagaev fell ill with what Universum described as a “protracted virus infection”.

As if all of this wasn’t enough, in June of last year Chagaev suffered a complete tear of the Achilles tendon in his left ankle during the last day of sparring for the rescheduled date with Valuev.

It has been one misfortune after another, and I wonder if these out-of-the ring problems have taken a little out of Chagaev.

Then we have to consider Valuev’s performance in his last fight, when he barely eked out a win over the 46-year-old Evander Holyfield.

The 7ft Russian seemed to have regressed. He fought as if he didn’t want to throw meaningful punches and he actually made Holyfield look young again. Valuev’s steady jabbing picked up points but Holyfield landed the heavier punches. Valuev just couldn’t seem to summon up any urgency and he almost blew the fight.

I have a feeling, though, that Valuev never felt comfortable about fighting an ageing legend in a much-criticised match and I think that this might have had something to do with his passive performance.

On Saturday I think that we will see a much more determined and committed Valuev. This is a fight that the Valuev team has badly wanted ever since the narrow loss two years ago. I am not so sure that Chagaev really wants this fight, though. I thought he was a deserving winner last time but it was a physically and mentally tiring fight for the much smaller man and he had to dig down and grit it out in those rounds when Valuev was closing in on him and starting to find him with the jabs and right hands. Chagaev found the answers, but he looked relieved to hear the final bell.

Chagaev fought to the limit of his physical and technical ability that night, and it is reasonable to assume that he will need to do so again if he is to repeat his victory. Can he, though? He has obviously trained well for the rematch, but my nagging doubt is that the health and injury issues might have taken a toll.

Valuev is going to fight the same way he did in the first bout, moving in steadily, using the jab and looking to come through with the right hand — basic stuff — but I think that his new trainer, Alexander Zimin, will have him being a bit busier, perhaps putting his punches together a bit more instead of plodding away with jabs and the old one-two. I did think that Valuev showed improvement in his easy win over Sergei Liakhovich in February 2008, followed by his second hard-earned win over John Ruiz and then the dreadful display against Holyfield.

If Valuev boxes as well as he did against Liakhovich, when the punches were actually flowing at times, I think he has a strong chance of winning. In fact, the more I think about Saturday’s fight, the more I lean Valuev’s way.

The fans in Helsinki — who will be attending the biggest boxing event in Finland since featherweight champion Davey Moore destroyed Olli Maki in 1962 — and the European TV viewing audience should see an absorbing tactical fight that could again be very close.

In rematches, the winner is usually the fighter who learns more from the first fight and can produce an improved showing — especially if the winner the first time isn’t quite as good as he was in the original meeting.

I think that Valuev can improve slightly on his performance of two years ago, while my suspicion is that Chagaev might not be able to box at quite the same level, with the same consistency, that he did in the first bout. Therefore I will go with Valuev to win, on points.