NIKOLAI VALUEV vs JOHN RUIZ

A compelling event is isn’t, but Saturday’s rematch between Nikolai Valuev and John Ruiz is an important fight. For one thing it’s for the WBA heavyweight title (vacated when champion Ruslan Chagaev twice had to withdraw from dates against Valuev), and if Valuev wins there will be the possibility of quite intriguing fights against Wladimir Klitschko or the winner of the Samuel Peter-Vitali Klitschko match.

If Ruiz wins? Well, it will not in truth be the outcome that boxing’s power brokers want, but they might have to bite the bullet because the ex-champ has a good chance of upsetting the odds. In fact I make the fight a bit closer than the oddsmakers have it.

When Valuev outpointed Ruiz in December 2005 it was very close — just one round on one scorecard from being a draw.

Valuev looked very good in his last fight when he easily outpointed Sergei Liakhovich, but in his fight before that he was booed out of the ring after a dreary showing against Jean-Francois Bergeron, the French-Canadian southpaw.

Liakhovich, weighing his heaviest ever at 251 pounds, was slow and lethargic. Valuev boxed the best he has ever boxed, but was it a virtual overnight transformation under his new trainer Alexander Zimin or was he flattered by Liakhovich’s passivity?

In the fight with Liakhovich, Valuev was able to dominate with the jab and combinations but he was in with someone he was able to keep at a distance and under control. Liakhovich fought like someone who had mentally given up from the first round. It isn’t so easy to dictate a fight against Ruiz, who will not obligingly stand back and let Valuev jab his head off, as was the case with Liakhovich.

Ruiz, I believe, will be going at Valuev, throwing hard punches and either moving around him or getting in close so that his huge opponent will not have the room to punch. In the last fight Ruiz’s punch-and-fall-in method gave Valuev a lot of trouble. It seemed to me that Valuev built up enough points with the jab to eke out a narrow win, but the decision was booed. Although the 7ft Russian is the house fighter in Berlin I believe there will be support in the crowd for Ruiz, who has lost two tight decisions in Germany (first to Valuev, then to Chagaev).

German crowds, in fact, often get behind Valuev’s opponents. It may be the universal impulse to cheer for a small man in a fight with a big one; Valuev, of course, is such a hulking presence that he dwarfs everyone he meets.

Some encouragement from the spectators is always nice to have, but I don’t think it matters too much to Ruiz either way. Say what you like about Ruiz having an unattractive style, but he is usually strong mentally and he is going in to the fight with a winner’s attitude. I was only recently able to see a tape of his fight with the 268-pound Jameel McCline, and I was quite impressed with the way that Ruiz went in and bullied the bigger man. I thought he hurt McCline at least twice in a one-sided victory.

It was a dreadful bout to watch, with considerable wrestling and mauling, but to me it looked as if Ruiz was the boxer who wanted to fight.

At 36, Ruiz is the man who will not go away. He is rough handful for anyone. Despite all the untidy tangles and the jeers of the Mexican crowd, I sensed a great deal of determination from Ruiz in the McCline fight. He had the air of a man who means to have the last laugh on his critics by becoming a champion again, and I am expecting him to give Valuev another difficult fight, one that could again be close on the scorecards.

Still, I do believe that Valuev is going to come out in front once more. His jab is always going to be his main asset, given his height and reach, he is more experienced now and he does seem to have tightened up his technique now that he has had more time to work with his new trainer, Zimin.

Both Valuev and Ruiz are likely to have their moments, but overall I think that Valuev’s jab is going to be the difference. I think he will be able to land the jab often enough, in between Ruiz’s rushes, to get the vote of the judges.

NOTE: For those who missed it and who might be interested, I previewed Saturday’s Ivan Calderon vs Hugo Cazares rematch for ESPN.com earlier in the week.