NIKOLAI VALUEV vs EVANDER HOLYFIELD

The long, seemingly never-ending quest by Evander Holyfield to rule again as heavyweight champion probably comes to a shuddering halt in Switzerland on Saturday.

Holyfield is a remarkable individual, but he is 46 years old and hasn’t boxed for 14 months. I counted him out after three successive losses from 2002-2004 when he was outpointed by Chris Byrd, stopped by James Toney and then beaten easily by Larry Donald. He looked so dreadful in the fight with Donald that the New York commission announced it would no longer licence him to box in the state.

Yet Holyfield refused to pack it in. He had been suffering from a lingering injury to his left shoulder and was unable to jab and hook effectively.

With the shoulder surgically repaired, Holyfield actually looked quite good in a few fights, pounding out inside-schedule wins over made-to-order opponents Jeremy Bates and Vinny Maddalone and almost stopping Lou Savarese in a widely scored win on points. He had a struggle with Fres Oquendo, but this was to be expected against an elusive, defensive-minded opponent.

These wins enabled Holyfield to get yet another title fight, and he gave a good account of himself against Sultan Ibragimov in Moscow, losing on points but catching the Russian southpaw with some heavy punches.

Afterwards, Holyfield maintained that he can still be champion, that Ibragimov’s southpaw style and movement was the problem, not his own diminishing skills.

And so Holyfield gives it one more try, and as always he expresses serene self-belief.

There is one thing that should help Holyfield on Saturday. He is meeting a champion who, while huge at 7ft and 310 pounds, is slow and plodding. Holyfield should be able to hit Valuev, and he has a chance, even at this stage of his career, if he is able to land his punches.

This, though, isn’t like a 45-year-old George Foreman knocking out Michael Moorer. Foreman, although the underdog, was the bigger, stronger man in that fight and he was meeting a champion with a notoriously suspect chin. As the great old matchmaker Mel “Red” Greb told me when discussing that fight: “Foreman can win — the other guy goes down too easy.”

Valuev doesn’t go down easily. In fact, he has never been dropped to my knowledge (although John Ruiz staggered him with an overhand right in their rematch and the Russian’s glove seemed to touch the canvas in what was not officially ruled a knockdown). The big fellow seems to take a very good punch. Monte Barrett hit him with some haymakers — the sort of punches that toppled Tye Fields — and Valuev never seemed seriously shaken. So, while Holyfield might be able to hit the Russian giant with some solid shots, it doesn’t seem likely he can blow him out of the fight the way Foreman did against Moorer.

If Holyfield is to achieve the unlikely victory it will have to be by fighting consistently, letting his hands go, piling up points. At his age, I just don’t think that Holyfield can fight the sort of busy fight that will get the job done.

Although Holyfield looks in magnificent condition, as ever, at just over 214 pounds, he has the problem of getting past Valuev’s long left jab and, once in range, to get his punches off before his huge opponent can close him down in a clinch.

On the outside, Valuev’s left jab and the occasional right hand should allow the WBA champion to control the fight.

Valuev is a disciplined fighter with good fundamentals. He will stick with what he does best, which is basic boxing built around the left hand, effective if unspectacular. With his size, a simple method of left jab, right hand, interspersed with the odd uppercut, is more than adequate to see him through against most heavyweights.

I think that Holyfield can be reasonably competitive on Saturday. He is a tough man, mentally and physically, and he can still punch. Also, he will be going into the fight with the attitude that he is going to come out the winner. Valuev has said that he respects Holyfield and is not taking him lightly, and I believe him. I think that Valuev is going to treat Holyfield as a dangerous opponent and box accordingly. In what could be a more entertaining fight than some might expect, I take Valuev to box his way to a unanimous decision win.