NEHOMAR CERMENO vs ALEJANDRO VALDEZ

When Alejandro Valdez challenged Hozumi Hasegawa for the WBC bantamweight title in Tokyo 14 months ago he looked like putting forth a highly competitive effort when he got caught and stopped in the second round. Valdez was very unhappy about the intervention by Canadian referee Michael Griffin — but it did seem that he was wobbly after getting dropped.

On Saturday, as part of the Top Rank two-location PPV show, Valdez makes another world title attempt. This time he will be boxing in his hometown of Ciudad Obregon in Mexico, and he meets an undefeated champion in Nehomar Cermeno, a Panamanian-based Venezuelan who, while quick and clever, isn’t considered to be anywhere near as dangerous a puncher as Hasegawa.

This, then, is a fight that Valdez has a strong chance of winning, which is reflected by the closeness of the betting odds. Cermeno opened as a favourite with the sportsbooks, but I make this virtually a dead-even fight, with no clear favourite.

Cermeno, 30, is making his third visit to Mexico this year. He twice outpointed the seasoned southpaw Cristian Mijares in front of hostile crowds. Each win was considered an upset. However, Mijares was boxing for the first time since being hammered into defeat in nine rounds by Vic Darchinyan. It is possible that something was taken out of Mijares by that severe setback.

Although Cermeno has had just 18 bouts he was a long-serving amateur, boxing for Venezuela in the Olympics and world championships and winning a silver medal in the Pan American Games. He was promoted for a time by Universum — a huge organisation always on the lookout for rising international stars — and has had several bouts in Germany. So, what with this and his amateur career, Cermeno is well-accustomed to boxing in foreign countries.

Valdez, also 30, is a fighter to be respected. A tall bantamweight at about 5ft 8ins, he likes to force the fight and get right down to business. He throws a high volume of punches from out of his southpaw stance, and he hits hard with either the right hook or the straight left hand through the middle. He can be a bit reckless, though. Valdez has been dropped in several fights and he has two stoppage losses on his record, one coming early in his career, the other against Hasegawa.

I gave Valdez a great chance against Hasegawa, and he did win the first round on one judge’s card, only to get drilled in round two just when it seemed he was getting right into the fight. Yet while Valdez can get hit quite easily at times, he isn’t meeting a seriously hard puncher on Saturday.

Cermeno has 10 stoppages in his 18 wins, but usually his route to victory is by outboxing, outspeeding and outworking his opponents. He rose to the occasion against Mijares in the biggest, toughest fights of his career. Cermeno impressed me with his energy and workrate in these fights. He was fast, elusive and busy, and he responded with bursts of punches whenever Mijares seemed to be taking over with pressure. The first fight was very close but Cermeno soundly beat Mijares in the rematch, which could indicate that he has raised his boxing to the next level with the confidence of being a champion.

Valdez has the height, the reach and the punching power. His only loss in the last five years was in the fight with Hasegawa. Valdez easily outpointed fighters such as former world champions Mauricio Pastrana and Adonis Rivas, world title challenger Cecilio Santos and Ghana’s Commonwealth champion Anyetei Laryea, and he stopped world title challenger Heriberto Ruiz, which isn’t easy to do.

In his last fight, Valdez looked well on his way to beating Fernando Montiel, in what would have been a significant upset, when the fight ended controversially on a three-round technical draw. TV replays suggested that Montiel had been cut from a punch, not a clash of heads. Valdez was on the floor in that fight, but he attacked Montiel fiercely in every round and was landing the harder punches. Montiel was, I thought, a bit lucky to get out of that fight without a loss on his record — and he is considered one of the world’s leading boxers in the lighter weight divisions.

Valdez will surely be bringing the pressure and a hardworking, fists pumping style to Saturday’s fight. Cermeno will be moving, trying to be elusive, countering, looking to punish Valdez’s lapses in defence.

I make this fight even more daunting for Cermeno than the ones with Mijares because he is meeting a taller man who hits hard, is relentless and who will no doubt draw strength from the passionate support of his hometown fans. I only wish that I could get a clear idea of who will win.

Cermeno has the unbeaten record, and he does seem to be a man with a great deal of confidence — and he may be able to raise his performance-level another notch or two, because with boxers who have never lost you can’t be sure how much higher they can rise until they do lose.

It should help Cermeno that his last two fights were in Mexico and against a southpaw in Mijares. Was Mijares a diminished fighter, though, after the Darchinyan destruction? Were these wins by Cermeno perhaps not as superb as they appeared to be?

This, for me, is one of those fights where you can flip-flop on the possible outcome any number of times during a day. In my mind’s eye I can see Cermeno eluding Valdez, befuddling him, hitting and getting away — yet I can also see Valdez crowding Cermeno, walking through him and hurting him with the left hands and the right hooks.

Anywhere but Ciudad Obregon I would take Cermeno to win. He not only makes his third trip to Mexico, but this time he is right in the other man’s backyard. Not many fighters win three consecutive bouts in the other man’s home country but it has been done. Guy Gracia, the French “destroyer of British lightweights” was once unbeaten in a stretch of eight fights in the U.K., while Nino Valdes, Cuba’s — you guessed it — “destroyer of British heavyweights” stopped four fighters in four appearances in Britain.

If Cermeno can make it a Mexican hat trick (sorry, couldn’t resist it) I will consider him a special type of fighter but I just lean, ever so slightly, towards Valdez. His chin is a worry, but I think he has the fire and the focus to win this fight, most likely by decision.