MIKE ALVARADO vs MANUEL GARNICA

ALVARADO: brings the pressure. / Photo: CHRIS FARINA, Top Rank
Location: 
DENVER, Oct. 3
Graham's Odds: 
Alvarado -1800; Garnica +800
Over 9.5 +110; under 9.5 -125

Mike Alvarado had an impressive stoppage win over Cesar Bazan in his last fight and now meets another Mexican veteran in Manuel Garnica, who should provide an interesting test in their 10-round junior welter bout that tops Telefutura’s show on Friday.

Bazan stood right in front of Alvarado and was holding his own until he just seemed to give up in the fourth — one judge actually gave the old pro every round.

Garnica presents a different sort of style — quick, clever and lots of movement. It will not be so easy for Alvarado to land his heavy punches against Garnica, who was crafty and busy when bamboozling Carlos Maussa and almost beating Juan Lazcano. In fact, the general perception is that Garnica was very unlucky to lose a split decision to Lazcano.

Since then Garnica has been outpointed by Timothy Bradley and the unbeaten Irish southpaw Paul McCloskey, and he was knocked out in the eighth in Germany by the heavy-handed Argentinean, Marcos Maidana.

Alvarado is obviously expected to win, especially as he is boxing at home in Denver, but the interest will lie in whether or not he can get Garnica out of the fight inside 10 rounds.

Garnica is a proud fighter who knows how to survive and go the distance if winning is beyond him. He took the fight with Bradley at two weeks’ notice and although down three times in the first four rounds never looked seriously shaken. It was as if he was just taking an eight count to get a respite from Bradley’s early onslaught.

I thought that Garnica did well to go into the eighth with Maidana, who has nine first-round KO wins. It was the longest number of rounds that Maidana has taken in 23 KO wins, and I believe it was a hook to the body that took Garnica out of the fight.

Alvarado will be bringing the pressure as he always does, but Garnica is cagey enough to frustrate him and maybe outhustle him to some extent, at least for a few rounds. However, I don’t think that Garnica has enough hitting power to discourage Alvarado from steaming into him.

I would expect Alvarado to start having considerable success around the midway mark of the fight, after he has landed enough punches to slow Garnica down somewhat.

If Alvarado can stop Garnica it will be a very good result. I think he can do it, gradually wearing down Garnica and then overpowering him around the ninth round.

Last Updated: 
September 30, 2008 - 8:02am