MARCOS MAIDANA vs VICTOR CAYO

Hard punching Marcos Maidana returns to HBO tonight to meet undefeated Victor Cayo in what should be a highly entertaining fight for Maidana’s interim WBA 140-pound title.

Maidana came through with a dramatic win in an HBO thriller when he survived three knockdowns to stop Victor Ortiz in the sixth round. He is a big puncher but quite hittable. Cayo, a tall, fast boxer from the Dominican Republic, can have success with a hit-and-move style against the slower Argentinean fighter. The question is whether he can keep it up for 12 rounds.

Cayo was seen on Friday Night Fights last July when he won a unanimous decision over ex-lightweight champion Julio Diaz. He has a relaxed look, hands low, and he was much too quick for Diaz, at times almost raining punches on the veteran. Diaz finished strongly in the 10th round, though, as Cayo suddenly seemed to tire after boxing a speedy, high-activity type of fight for nine rounds.

My impression of Cayo was that he could be in trouble against a seriously hard puncher. He relies on agility and reflexes to avoid punches, but he can be caught. Diaz was able to land hooks, although not with sufficient power to get Cayo into difficulties. If Maidana lands, though, I think that Cayo is going to have problems.

Cayo could be a live underdog, but I think that Maidana will be too strong for him. I don’t think Cayo can keep Maidana off of him for the full 12 rounds. Maidana isn’t as speedy as Cayo but he is capable of throwing fast punches. Cayo can be a frustrating opponent to fight with his elusiveness and switches to the southpaw style, but Maidana has the confidence of a fighter who knows that even if he is falling behind on the scorecards he can turn things in his favour with one punch.

I can see Cayo winning the fight until he gets caught, and I do think that Maidana is going to catch up with him, perhaps around the eighth or ninth round.