MARCO ANTONIO BARRERA vs ROCKY JUAREZ

Marco Antonio Barrera is 32 years old and has been boxing professionally for more than 16 years. This is the time in a boxer’s career, especially one in the lighter weight divisions, when nothing can be taken for granted, when fights that once might have been considered almost routine suddenly look quite dangerous.

This is the position in which Barrera finds himself when he defends his 130-pound championship against underdog Rocky Juarez on HBO from the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Yes, Barrera should win. He is vastly more experienced than Juarez and he has been involved in many more big fights, against some of the biggest names in the sport.

We always wonder, though, how much a wealthy fighter who has been at the top level for many years really has his heart in the game when the end of a great career is in sight.

If Barrera is taking Juarez somewhat lightly, if he is not quite as focused as he should be, then there could be a problem.

It is easy to look at Juarez’s fight with Humberto Soto last August, when the Olympic silver medallist suffered his first defeat, and jump to the conclusion that the challenger is not in Barrera’s league.

True, Juarez had been expected to beat the under regarded Soto and instead was soundly outpointed, yet one must consider the circumstances surrounding the fight. Juarez had been expecting to meet the Korean Injin Chi for the world title. Instead, when the Korean pulled out, he found himself meeting a substitute who was not very well known. A certain lessening of intensity and a feeling of mental letdown were inevitable, I believe, under the circumstances, while in Soto he was meeting a tall boxer-puncher instead of the coming-at-you slugger he had been preparing to face. These things can play a part in what happens in a fight. On the night, Juarez looked a little “flat" and Soto fought the fight of his life. That is how upsets can happen.

Now Juarez is back in a big fight — the biggest of his career — and the 26-year-old from Houston, TX, will have all the motivation he needs. If he can upset the odds against Barrera he will suddenly be in the picture for major fights against the elite names of the featherweight and junior lightweight divisions. A win here and Juarez will change his life.

The move up to 130 pounds could help Juarez, who has been boxing as a featherweight for a long time when you include his amateur career: he should be stronger with the extra four pounds.

Barrera, with his 61 wins and four losses, 42 opponents halted and world titles in three weight classes, is massively more experienced than his opponent, but although Juarez has had only 26 pro bouts (25 wins with 18 KOs) he was an amateur world champion and twice U.S. champ in addition to reaching the Olympic final in Sydney. The amateur background has to count for something.

Juarez has shown impressive punching power, especially with the left hook: his second-round blowout of former champ Guty Espadas was an outstanding performance. If Juarez hits Barrera he can hurt him, so that is something that is encouraging from the Juarez viewpoint.

Tactically, I think that Juarez has to try to get right into the fight at an early stage, keeping his hands up, moving in and trying to slip Barrera's jab and catch him with the hooks and right hands.

If Juarez is too respectful and stands off he is likely to be outboxed all night, as was the case with Robbie Peden when the Aussie, after talking a great fight, seemed to revert to his old role of Barrera’s sparmate on the big night.

The trouble is, going at Barrera and trying to nail him and back him up puts the other fighter at risk of being countered sharply. This is why I think this is going to be a very difficult fight for Juarez to win: if he tries to make it a physical fight he could find himself taking a lot of punches.

Barrera, once a power-and-pressure fighter, has evolved into a smart and stylish technician with a classic left hand.

Of course, Barrera is not unbeatable. Manny Pacquiao overwhelmed him with a fists-churning, high-energy assault but I do believe that the Mexican boxer was not really himself that night after well-chronicled distractions and out-of-the-ring problems. (That said, one must acknowledge that Pacquiao fought a great fight and that maybe his style would always be wrong for Barrera.)

When Barrera defeated his bitter rival Erik Morales a year later he was the fighter we had expected to see against Pacquiao — steady, strong, sharp, skilful and really making his punches count.

Even though Barrera boxed in rather a conservative fashion against Peden he was still highly effective. In fact, I think that if Barrera had opened up with his full array of punches he could have stopped Peden that night. He seemed content to give Peden a boxing lesson, but I noticed that when Barrera finally fired off some serious combinations in the 12th he had the Australian looking wobbly.

All things considered, I have to conclude that Juarez’s only real hope is to catch Barrera in a complacent frame of mind or, better yet, on a night the great champion suddenly ages before our eyes — what we call “growing old overnight".

If Barrera has his mind fully concentrated and is truly ready to fight — and I see no reason why this should not be the case — I think he will simply have too much ability and ring generalship for Juarez.

I think that Juarez can make it a competitive fight early but that Barrera’s left jab and his severe hooks and uppercuts with the left to body and head, augmented by strong right hands, will gradually take a toll. I can see a fight evolving where Juarez will be paying a price for the punches he lands and getting steadied and stopped in his tracks by combinations.

The gulf in class looks a little too wide.

Juarez has the grit and tenacity to endure and to keep fighting and I would like to see him have the satisfaction at least of going the full 12 rounds, but I envisage a wide points win for the older fighter.

I do believe that Juarez is a good fighter, but Barrera has the stamp of greatness — and that, as I see it, is the difference in this fight.