MANNY PACQUIAO vs DAVID DIAZ

The question on everyone’s mind heading into tonight’s lightweight title bout between Manny Pacquiao and David Diaz is how the Filipino superstar will perform at 135 pounds. After all, Pacquiao started his career as a 106-pounder (a month before his 17th birthday) and he is going into the ring against the biggest, strongest fighter he has ever faced.

Pacquiao, 29, the WBC 130-pound champion, is the clear favourite but Diaz is a rough, game and rugged fighter who will never stop coming at him. Having won the lightweight title against the odds after a 10-year career you can be sure he will fight to the bitter end to hang on to it.

If Pacquiao wins he will become a four-weight world champion, having captured belts at flyweight, junior featherweight and junior lightweight (when he ran right over Marco Antonio Barrera in their first fight no title was involved, although Barrera was considered the world’s leading featherweight).

Pacquiao looked ripped at 134 1/2 pounds at Friday’s weigh-in, but Diaz, who weighed right on the 135-pound limit, looked in the best condition of his life, more muscular than I have ever seen him.

Diaz looks physically stronger than Pacquiao and it seems obvious that he is going to use that strength by bulling the Filipino to the ropes and doing his best to batter him and maul him around.

Speed and boxing talent are with Pacquiao, though, plus experience against a much higher calibre of opponent than Diaz has faced.

Pacquiao says he is punching harder at 135 pounds, and if this is so he can have a spectacular result. If, however, he has not carried his punching power up in weight with him, this fight could become a gruelling struggle because Diaz might be able to take everything that is thrown at him and force his way into the fight on sheer attrition.

Diaz demonstrated his great will to win when he outlasted and then overwhelmed Jose Armando Santa Cruz in the 10th round of a fight he was losing on the scorecards. He showed it again in his fight with Erik Morales when, down in the first round and one eye swollen almost shut, he practically hurled himself into the attack and gritted out the win on sheer heart and hard work. Although Diaz has had difficult fights against ordinary boxers, for him the Pacquiao fight is the pinnacle of his career, his superfight, and he is going to be very difficult to discourage.

Pacquiao has been in tough fights before, though, and fought his way to victory. In terms of talent he looks a class above Diaz. The fact that Pacquiao is moving up in weight is what makes this fight really interesting. Diaz has fought as a junior welterweight — indeed, the Mexican-born fighter from Chicago boxed for the U.S. in the 1996 Olympics at light-welter. His strength, durability and willpower give him a chance, in theory anyway, of wearing down the more gifted boxer.

I do not see it that way, though. I believe that Pacquiao, who actually is a little taller than Diaz, was probably struggling to make 130 pounds. I think that the move up to lightweight has come at the right time for him.

As much as one must admire Diaz for all he has achieved, the inescapable fact is that he was life-and-death with a Morales who in his last fight had been knocked out in three rounds by Pacquiao. Although Diaz eventually stopped Santa Cruz, he had lost almost every round until his opponent’s stamina ran out. In his last fight, a non-title bout, although Diaz widely outpointed the useful but unexceptional Ramon Montano he was still taking quite a lot of punches.

If these opponents were able to hit Diaz consistently, then Pacquiao is most likely going to be able to do the same — and more. Pacquiao, I think, is speedy enough to elude most of Diaz’s rushes and I think he will make the defending champion pay a price for his willingness to walk right in. Diaz has suffered cuts and swellings in the past — in boxing’s cruel jargon he can be busted up. Pacquiao’s fast, hard, left hand through the middle can do damage in this meeting of southpaws.

I think that Diaz will put up an extremely spirited fight. There might be some rough spots for Pacquiao. Eventually, though, I think that Pacquiao’s speed, skill and sharpness will separate him from his game opponent, and by the 10th round I think that he will be landing with such frequency that the referee will feel compelled to save Diaz from taking further punishment.