KENDALL HOLT vs KAIZER MABUZA

Former junior welter champion Kendall Holt returns to the ring after almost a year’s inactivity to meet South African Kaizer Mabuza in an IBF elimination bout on Saturday. The layoff is a concern but Holt is the type of fighter who needs a bout with meaning to get him motivated. This is such a bout, with the winner of the 12-rounder becoming the IBF’s No. 1 challenger in the 140-pound division.

Holt is on home ground in New Jersey, but Mabuza has boxed against local favourites in Denmark, Namibia, Ghana, Australia and Ukraine. It was Mabuza’s majority decision win over unbeaten Sergey Fedchenko in Ukraine last September that earned him Saturday’s elimination bout.

The show is being televised on Fox Sports Espanol and regional Fox Sports networks, but my understanding is that only the two 10-round bouts featuring Latino boxers (Saul Roman vs Gabriel Rosado; Mike Jones vs Henry Bruseles) will be shown live.

Holt’s last appearance saw him floor Timothy Bradley in the first and final rounds while getting outhustled and outworked for most of the rounds in between.

The risk for him on Saturday is that he stays back, waits for the perfect openings and lets Mabuza steal rounds by being busy.

Mabuza is on a run of seven successive wins, and like the majority of the leading South African boxers he is extremely well-conditioned — he has been the 12-round distance five times.

My impression of Mabuza is that, while he is tough, willing and throws a high volume of punches, he lacks the polish of a true world-class fighter.

In the win over Fedchenko, it was Mabuza’s superior strength and pressure that earned him the win. He moved in with gloves up but tended to drop his guard and simply wing his punches once he was in firing range. Mabuza also tended to duck low, bringing a string of cautions from the German referee, and Fedchenko was cut over both eyes from head clashes.

A fighter with Mabuza’s style, aggressive but available to be hit, could, I think, be in trouble against a quick sharpshooter such as Holt.

Mabuza looked durable against Fedchenko, but he was in the ring with an opponent who couldn’t hurt him. Fedchenko made some clever moves but he seemed lacking in physical strength, and Mabuza was able to overwhelm him a bit and drag him around in the clinches, even throwing the Ukrainian boxer to the floor in one of the later rounds.

On Saturday, though, Mabuza will be in the ring with a fighter who can hurt him. Holt can be explosive, with either hand but especially with the left hook, and he is surely a harder puncher than suggested by his record (13 opponents stopped in 28 fights).

I consider Holt looks to be a higher class of fighter than Mabuza, he looks much the better puncher and he has boxed a higher level of opponent. Holt’s tendency to be a bit negative is my only worry. He must not allow Mabuza to build up a head of steam and start to fancy his chances. If Holt boxes as well as he is capable of boxing, there shouldn’t be a problem for him.

Mabuza has been stopped only twice, the last time almost seven years ago, so he can obviously take a punch. I’m not sure he can take Holt’s punches for the full 12 rounds, however.

I see this fight as very much like Holt’s 2006 bout with another South African, Isaac Hlatshwayo (who holds two wins over Mabuza). Hlatshwayo pressed forward, but Holt outsmarted and outboxed him and dropped his man three times. Holt almost scored a stoppage win that night, and I would rate Hlatshwayo a better fighter than Mabuza.

A win will get Holt another championship fight, and I can’t see him blowing the opportunity. Mabuza, if he fights the way he did against Fedchenko, will be coming on to Holt’s punches. On paper, this looks like being a long fight, probably a full distance one, but the more I look at it, the more I feel that Holt has a real chance of landing the sort of big punches that can lead to an early ending. I’ll go with Holt by stoppage, maybe around the ninth round.