JULIO DIAZ vs ROLANDO REYES

With Joel Casamayor out due to injury, Julio Diaz now goes in with Rolando Reyes in a 10-rounder on the “Lightweight Lightning” PPV show in Austin on Saturday.

Diaz is a big favourite at the sportsbooks, but I don’t think that Reyes should be taken lightly. When Reyes feels confident he can be a dangerous proposition, as he showed when stopping Courtney Burton and Stevie Johnston.

The big problem with Reyes is that you never can be sure which version of the fighter will show up. He went into defensive mode against Jose Luis Castillo, for instance, and he was lacklustre in his last fight when outpointing Ivan Valle.

Diaz, meanwhile, has looked somewhat revitalised in his last two fights, destroying the overmatched David Torres and then easily outboxing journeyman Fernando Trejo.

Reyes is 30 and his career isn’t going anywhere, with just one fight in 2007 and one last year. If he beats Diaz it will be a huge step forward for him, but he has to believe in himself if he is to pull it off.

Diaz looks a bit faster and a bit more more talented, but he hasn’t always shown the best chin in the world and Reyes can bang. Reyes has sparred with Diaz and I am told he more than held his own, which could help him psychologically although sparring and a real fight are not the same. I do expect Diaz to win, probably on points, but if Reyes comes into the ring with the right amount of determination and self-belief he will be dangerous — but it’s a big “if”.