JUERGEN BRAEHMER vs ALEKSY KUZIEMSKI

Juergen Braehmer, impressive in his last two fights, meets Poland’s Aleksy Kuziemski for the vacant WBO interim light-heavy title as part of the big Universum show in Budapest on Saturday, and at first glance this looks like a fight that the German southpaw should win handily. Braehmer has much more professional experience than Kuziemski and he has fought at a higher level.

Although both men are in the Universum stable, Braehmer is the fighter who has had much more exposure, with a number of big TV fights. Kuziemski, meanwhile, has been boxing in comparative obscurity.

Yet the more I look at this fight, the more I think that Braehmer might have a rough night ahead of him.

Kuziemski is 32 and prematurely bald, and although he has been boxing professionally for four years, and is undefeated, we still do not know how good he is.

In 2005, Kuziemski outpointed Enad Licina, who is currently a world-class cruiserweight, but this was so early in the career of both men I am not sure how much importance can be attached to it.

Kuziemski did win a close fight against the Olympic silver medallist Aripgadzhiev, of Belarus, an old amateur rival who had beaten him in the 2003 world championships, but mostly his wins have been over fighters he was expected to beat. This includes a widely scored decision over 42-year-old Brazilian Peter Venancio and, in Kuziemski’s last fight, an easy stoppage win in five rounds over the 37-year-old Armin Dollinger, who although unbeaten was decidedly ordinary.

So, Kuziemski is making a significant step up in class on Saturday. Braehmer, 30, is the European champion and he looked very good in his last two fights, stopping durable French veteran Rachid Kanfouah in five rounds and then running right through the Italian, Antonio Brancalion, who had never been stopped but was dropped four times in an 83-second blowout.

Braehmer was well beaten, though, when he challenged Hugo Hernan Garay for the WBA title in November 2008. Although Braehmer showed grit, he was being outworked and outpunched in most of the rounds. Garay is a tough customer but we have to wonder now if he was really all that good, since he was beaten on home turf in Argentina by Gabriel Campillo in his last fight, although Garay’s weight-making issues may have played a large part in his defeat.

I thought that Garay’s physical strength and pressure had a lot to do with his win over Braehmer, and although the German fighter has good skills and punches hard he has sometimes seemed to me to be a bit too open to right hands, and he had to pick himself off the floor to win against the Argentinean Hector Velazco a couple of years ago.

Kuziemski looks very strong, thick through the chest and shoulders, and he has been boxing as a 175-pounder all through his professional career whereas Braehmer moved up from 168 pounds. The Polish fighter might, then, be able to push Braehmer back and impose his strength.

From what I have seen of Kuziemski he looks like a solid, well-balanced, well-schooled fighter with a good jab, good right hand, and he is an accurate puncher although, as his record shows, not a powerful one.

Kuziemski fought at the highest level as an amateur. He boxed for Poland in the Olympics and won a bronze medal in the world and European championships. He holds wins in the amateurs over international-standard boxers such as Olympic silver medallist Kenneth Egan of Ireland and Olympic bronze medallists Fedchuk of Ukraine and Tony Jeffries of the UK.

On paper, Braehmer should win. He looks a bit better than Kuziemski and he is clearly the harder puncher. Kuziemski has never fought at this level before, though, and he just might rise to the occasion. I cannot in all conscience pick an upset because Kuziemski’s potential is not known, but while the logical result is a win for Braehmer by decision I would not be surprised to see him pushed to the limit — a little voice keeps telling me that Kuziemski is a live underdog.