JUAN CARLOS GOMEZ vs VLADIMIR VIRCHIS

FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

Gomez came in at around 233 pounds today, his heaviest-ever weight. This is surprising, but it is my understanding that he has been doing a lot of strength training. In theory the added bulk will help him to hold his own in the clinches with the much bigger man and not make it so easy for Virchis to maul him around. He might also be planning on adding power at the expense of speed. I cannot believe that the Gomez camp has been issuing a pack of lies about how hard he has been training and that he is coming into the fight out of shape. What would be the point of that? (Still, Kirk Johnson came in grossly overweight for his big fight with Vitali Klitschko, so who really knows?) Here we go again, though, when a big-fight weigh-in produces a guessing game. The preview that follows is as it was written on Thursday.

One of the most difficult things a fighter has to face is to be in a position where he has to box a near-perfect fight for 12 rounds against a bigger, stronger man who is also a dangerous puncher. This is exactly the situation in which Juan Carlos Gomez finds himself when he meets Vladimir Virchis in their WBC heavyweight title eliminator on Saturday’s huge show in Hamburg.

Gomez is the faster, more skilled boxer, but Virchis is the type who can instantly get an opponent into trouble. Just one well-placed punch can bring about the desired result for the big Ukrainian, who is the house fighter on the Universum show.

Virchis, 6ft 5ins and just under 250 pounds, is slow moving but he has a relaxed style and, to me, boxes in the manner of a man who knows that all he has to do is be patient and sooner or later he will get the opening he needs. He is usually right in this right regard. Twenty of his 24 wins have been by KO.

Worryingly for Gomez, the Ukrainian can punch just as hard late in a fight as he can at the beginning. He showed this in his fight with fellow-Ukrainian Taras Bidenko. After almost stopping Bidenko early, Virchis was losing round after round until he suddenly caught and hurt a tiring Bidenko late in the 11th, then knocked him down and overpowered him in the last round.

Virchis knocked out Paolo Vidoz with one punch, a right uppercut, in the sixth round, but in the rematch he was pushed quite hard by the Italian in the later rounds, the one-sided scores in his favour notwithstanding. British sources tell me that Michael Sprott clearly outboxed Virchis in a fight televised on EuroSport, although the Ukrainian got a close but unanimous decision. I am told that the journeyman Robert Hawkins was winning every round against Virchis until he got hit on the chin and taken out of the fight in the fifth round.

Therein lies the danger for Gomez. He could be winning every round against Virchis, then either get overly confident, or a little too aggressive, and suddenly any advantage on points he might have will be wiped out by one punch.

Gomez is a very seasoned fighter, though. A former outstanding cruiserweight champion, the German-based Cuban is a savvy southpaw with good hand speed. He easily beat sturdy but slow Sinan Samil Sam in September 2003 on an HBO all-heavyweight show, even dropping Sam in a first-round flash knockdown, but Gomez did get hit by a couple of good right hands and his mouthpiece was knocked flying in the sixth and seventh rounds.

This is worrying for the Gomez camp, because if a lumbering fighter like Sinan Samil Sam could hit him with right hands, Virchis figures to be able to do so, too. However, Gomez was basically playing with Sam, dropping his hands and taunting him. Surely his conceit doesn’t extend to him trying to do something as foolhardy as this against Virchis?

In his very next fight after the win over Sam, in an absolute shocker of a result, Gomez got caught cold and stopped in the first round by his fellow-Cuban, Yanqui Diaz, a very ordinary fighter.

The distance was reduced from 10 to eight rounds, as I understand it because Gomez was essentially in no shape to fight to fight 10 rounds. Gomez practically sauntered out of his corner, as if he expected Diaz to show him deference. Instead, Diaz hit him with a right hand, and kept hitting him. Gomez didn’t go down, but he was out on his feet against the ropes when the referee waved the finish. It was an unbelievable upset.

Since then Gomez’s best performances were two decision wins over ageing but heavy handed Oliver McCall (one changed to a no decision when Gomez tested positive for drugs — cocaine, I believe). In the rematch last October, Gomez had to survive a scare when McCall wobbled him with a right hand in the 10th round and then battered away at him. Gomez held on, but he was coming back at the end of the round.

Once again, in this fight, Gomez was his own worst enemy. There was one round when he actually stood in front of McCall with his hands by his sides. This taunting of opponents and trying to get them disheartened is all well and good but it can lead to disaster.

The Gomez camp seems well aware of this. Gomez’s promoter, Ahmet Oner, brought over the Miami-Cuban trainer, Orlando Cuellar, to work with Gomez for this fight. Cuellar, best known for his sterling work with Glen Johnson, is a disciplinarian who doesn’t mess around with fighters who aren’t willing to give 100 per cent of themselves. I see Cuellar’s appointment as a positive move.

There have been problems in the past with Gomez’s lack of dedication. He shares a belief not uncommon with talented fighters in thinking that they can cut corners, that their boxing skills will see them through even if they are not in the best possible condition.

Gomez does seem to have done all the right things for Saturday’s fight, though. He is 35 and he knows that this is his last chance. If he gets knocked out, it’s game over.

There is, too, a lot of emotion and ill will associated with this fight. Gomez was once one of the Universum stars but left the powerhouse promoter on bad terms. It would give him great satisfaction if he could beat a Universum fighter on a Universum show.

If ever there was a fight that Gomez, wanted to win, it is this one — but can he do it?

This could be a lot like the Michael Moorer versus George Foreman fight, with Gomez in the Moorer role, a southpaw boxing a smart fight and piling up points until that one mistake brings everything crashing down, just as it did for Moorer.

While Virchis is slow, one thing he is very good at doing is throwing “little” punches that don’t look like much but have the effect of lulling an opponent into mental lethargy. However, Virchis is not normally the type who goes right after opponents. He likes to wait for the right moment and then land the accurate hits that do instant damage. Gomez is going to get hit in this fight, but he has been around a long time and he might be able to hang on, as he did with McCall, and get his legs moving again.

The trouble is, Gomez can’t afford to get hit too many times. He might be able to survive one or two rocky moments but not too many of them. In other words, he must keep defensive lapses to the barest minimum.

The fact that Virchis is slow does help Gomez, though. He might be able to hit and move, and to an extent keep the pace to his liking. Virchis is very tough, but if Gomez can hit him often enough he might be able to get him a bit discombobulated. If Gomez pushes his luck, though, he will be skating on thin ice.

I have gone backwards and forwards on this one. I can see either man winning — Virchis by KO, Gomez on points. With great uncertainty, I will take Gomez to box the sort of fight he needs to box — moving, clinching, punching and moving some more — and find a way to reach the finishing post with enough points in the bank to get his hand raised at the end.