JORGE LINARES vs ROCKY JUAREZ

LINARES: rebuilding after a one-round shocker. / Photo: SUMIO YAMADA
Location: 
Mandalay Bay casino resort, Las Vegas, July 31
Graham's Odds: 
Linares -350; Juarez +280
Over 9.5 -180; under 9.5 +140

When Amir Khan suffered a shocking first round knockout loss against Breidis Prescott he picked himself up, dusted himself off, and — astutely guided by trainer Freddie Roach —came back with a series of wins to make himself one of boxing’s biggest attractions.
 
Jorge Linares was, like Khan, a one-round knockout victim when he lost his junior lightweight title to Juan Carlos Salgado in Tokyo last October.  He, too, is attempting to pick up the pieces and show that what happened was just an accident, and he hopes to take a major step forward when he meets the tough and capable Rocky Juarez on the big PPV show in Las Vegas on Saturday.
 
Linares is the favourite in this 10-round bout, but Juarez is very experienced and he is capable of being dangerous. There is a suspicion about Linares’s chin after the 73-second defeat against Salgado, but losses such as this can be fluke results — the better fighter can get caught unawares. The Linares shocker in Tokyo was a strange one. I am told that that Salgado planned on throwing a quick left hook followed immediately by a much harder right hand; he threw the left hook but the right hand wasn’t needed because Linares was already collapsing to the canvas. The left hook landed on Linares’s temple, and a shot of that type can scatter a boxer’s senses. Although Linares beat the count, he was practically out on his feet and Salgado quickly overwhelmed him.
 
I must admit a certain concern that, in his only bout since that dreadful evening, Linares was able to win only by majority decision over Francisco Lorenzo back home in Venezuela. Still, he was meeting an awkward veteran and maybe he simply wasn’t motivated — or perhaps he needed a 10-round fight such as this to get back in the groove after the Salgado setback.
 
Promoted by Akihiko Honda in Japan from the start of his career (but now co-promoted by Golden Boy Promotions), Linares had the look of an emerging super star when he outclassed Oscar Larios in his last appearance in Las Vegas three years ago. He is only 24, and a convincing win on Saturday will put his career back on course.
 
There is risk in the fight, of course. A win for Linares is by no means preordained. Juarez can bang and he has talent, but the knock against Rocky, of course, is that he simply does not throw enough punches.
 
If Juarez goes right after Linares from the first bell and maintains steady pressure — and lets his hands go — he can pull off the upset. Yet, in fight after fight, Rocky has waited and waited for exactly the right moment to throw his big left hook, and fights have simply slipped away from him.
 
Linares must be alert at all times in this fight, but I believe that he knows this. I am expecting the sort of fast-moving, crisp-boxing display that he produced against Larios. As stunning as the loss to Salgado was, I haven’t lost faith in Linares. I think that he will be a bit too quick and too active for Juarez, steering clear of danger and picking up enough points to take a clear decision after a tense and entertaining contest.