JORGE ARCE vs CRISTIAN MIJARES

The main event between Manny Pacquiao and Jorge Solis on Saturday might be overshadowed for sheer drama by a terrific all-Mexican fight on the same show when sharp-boxing southpaw Cristian Mijares defends his WBC 115-pound title against colourful Jorge Arce, the former champion at 105 pounds.

Although Arce justifiably is the favourite some respected figures in the fight trade are picking Mijares. The Mexican boxing expert Rafael Mendoza told me this week: “It’s a tough fight, very, very close to call — a coin flip. This kid Mijares has a lot of class and a lot of speed and nice defence — a very, very good fighter. Arce depends on his power and stubbornness, but he has no defence. Anybody can win.”

I have been impressed with Mijares for some time. I picked him to upset the odds when he challenged Katsushige Kawashima for the super flyweight belt in Japan and I liked him in the rematch. My first thoughts when the match with Arce was made was that there will be an upset, and it is very tempting to pick Mijares. He is a southpaw with excellent movement, fast hands and a ton of confidence — just the type who figures to give Arce a great deal of difficulty.

This is classic boxer-fighter fare. Mijares will be supplying the skill; Arce is strong and heavy handed, always bringing the fight — but as Rafael Mendoza said, he walks onto punches. This was noticeable in his last fight when Argentina’s Julio David Roque Ler, although essentially there to survive, peppered Arce with disturbing ease whenever he let his hands go.

When Arce knocked out Hussein Hussein in their first fight it was one of the most exciting bouts I have seen on site in Las Vegas, and I have seen a lot of them. Blood flowed from a horrible cut across the bridge of Arce’s nose and the ringside doctor kept checking on the extent of the damage but Arce pleaded to be allowed to continue, saying: “I can knock this guy out.” He did, too, in the 10th round, truly a “fighting son of a gun” as promoter Bob Arum called him at the post-fight media conference.

In the rematch, Arce blew right through the Australian in two rounds, a much easier win than anyone had anticipated, but since then he has been in a series of fights where he was a big betting favourite. The match with Mijares is Arce’s first genuinely competitive fight in a year and a half. This time Arce is not in with a worn-out veteran or someone who will be coming just to last the distance but a vibrant 25-year-old who believes he is going to beat him.

Mijares showed considerable character when winning the title from Kawashima in Japan when he had to survive a heavy knockdown in the second round. In the rematch in January, which I saw on tape, Mijares seemed to have made startling improvement as he not only outboxed the 32-year-old Kawashima but also outfought him in some spirited exchanges before winning in the 10th round.

I liked the way that Mijares punched in combinations — there were moments when he would dig in his heels and unload both hands to the body in eye-catching fashion, and although he is not considered a hard hitter I think that his body punching slowed Kawashima down to the point where his resistance to taking punches was considerably compromised.

That was a marvellous win by Mijares, his best ever. It should be remembered, though, that Kawashima had been in a lot of wars in his 10-year career — including the bloodbath with Jose Navarro — and he might have been at that stage where he was ready to be stopped.

As the fight draws closer, I am starting to move back from my tentative earlier position of an upset win for Mijares.

Arce has a lot more experience of being in big fights and I think that, faced with a fellow-Mexican who is perceived as a serious threat, he will most likely be well-prepared and psychologically ready for a 12-round war if that is what it will take.

Many people believe that in evenly matched fights such as this the boxer will always beat the fighter, and this is often the case. I have to wonder, though, if Mijares will be able to hold off Arce for the full 12 rounds.

Out in the centre of the ring Mijares might be able to enjoy long moments of supremacy with his speed and his boxing skill. The danger for Mijares will come if he is forced to the ropes, where Arce might be able to hit him in the body and take some of the spring out of his legs.

Even though Mijares dropped and overwhelmed Kawashima in their rematch he has stopped only 12 opponents in 35 fights; he might well be able to pile up points but I think that Arce is the fighter who will be doing the greater damage. As the fight goes into the later rounds I think that Arce’s body punches might start to take effect, and if Mijares starts to become available to be hit I think he will find himself in trouble.

I think that Mijares will be winning the fight early but that Arce’s pressure and power will eventually prove a bit too much for him. I see Arce finishing strongly to stop Mijares around the 10th round.