JEFFREY MATHEBULA vs JULIO ZARATE

In his only defeat, South Africa’s Jeffrey Mathebula made the mistake of slugging it out with Thomas Mashaba and was overpowered in seven rounds. On Friday, Mathebula would be well advised to stick to his boxing and avoid toe-to-toe exchanges when he meets Mexico’s Julio Zarate in an IBF junior featherweight title eliminator.

Mathebula, a South African Olympic representative, is known for boxing skills and a fine left jab. He is tall and stylish. Why he got involved in a physical type of fight with his stronger fellow-countryman Mashaba only he can answer. My guess is that he found Mashaba easy to hit, decided to unload punches on him and went down a path of no return in that once he had started to stand and fight his pride wouldn’t allow him to back off.

If Mathebula stands off and boxes he can do well against Zarate. He needs to keep this a boxing match as much as possible.

Zarate, 32, seems to be the stronger man and the bigger puncher, and he promises a “life and death” battle. The Mexican fighter has lost only twice in the past 10 years, each time in a world title challenge when he was outpointed by Wladimir Sidorenko and stopped by Mahyar Monshipour, but he had Monshipour down and in big trouble before being worn down by the Iranian-born buzzsaw.

The South African site is a big advantage for Mathebula, but Zarate is accustomed to boxing away from home, having fought in Japan, Germany and France.

If this fight was anywhere but South Africa I would give the advantage to Zarate. At home, though, I make the 29-year-old Mathebula a very narrow favourite.

Mathebula seems to have learned his lesson from the fight with Mashaba. He stuck to his boxing against the sturdy, aggressive Ghanaian southpaw Osumanu Akaba in a gruelling fight.

After boxing as a featherweight for the past four years, Mathebula has moved back to the 122-pound division. As he is with one of South Africa’s top trainers, Nick Durandt, one must assume that the move has been well thought-out and that Mathebula will be strong at the weight. He will certainly need all his strength and grit, as well as the best boxing he can produce, to win this fight.

Zarate’s manager, Frank Espinoza, tells me the the Mexican boxer knows full well that if he loses this one there will be nowhere to go, at least as far as championship opportunities, and that he will indeed be giving it all he has.

I get the feeling that the local man has the boxing ability to win a close decision — but Zarate will be dangerous from the first bell until the fight is over.