JEAN PASCAL vs SILVIO BRANCO

Jean Pascal gave a thrillingly impressive performance in winning the WBC light-heavyweight title from Adrian Diaconu in June, when he was the underdog in the betting. On Friday, Pascal fulfills a mandatory defence requirement when he meets Italian veteran Silvio Branco in Montreal.

It is difficult to see how Branco qualifies for a title shot. The Italian is 43 and in his last big fight he was beaten by the beanpole Stipe Drews in a WBA title bout in Germany two years ago. Since then Branco has won four bouts in a row against weak opposition. One of those wins was over the 43-year-old Brazilian Peter Venancio to become the WBC’s International champion, and I suppose that capturing this steppingstone title qualifies Branco for the No. 1 ranking. Then again, it could be that Branco is being rewarded simply for services rendered to boxing — he has been a professional for 21 years, with a number of important bouts at the European level as well as twice winning the WBA belt, among other titles.

Branco’s biggest win was a surprising one, when he stopped the unbeaten Mehdi Sahnoune in a WBA title fight in Marseille six years ago. He has never been an exciting fighter but he is an efficient, somewhat awkward boxer who likes to stay back, use the jab and drop in right hands from time to time. He will often let his left hand drop down by his side to induce an opponent to lead to him so that he can pull back and counter. This method has worked well for Branco, and despite his advancing years the Italian boxer remains an imposing physical specimen, with a ripped physique.

Pascal, though, looks like being much too young and too fast for the older man. The Quebec boxer sees himself as heading for greatness — he seems quite convinced of this — and he will not let Branco stand in his way.

Although Pascal has talked of getting a knockout, it would be an achievement if he could do so. Branco knows how to survive and he has always had a good chin. Branco, though, hasn’t had to deal with anyone of Pascal’s talent, ambition and energy in a long time, if ever. At the age of 43, if things are getting tough and the punches are coming at him with rapidity, Branco’s desire for combat might start to diminish. Then it will be a matter of whether Branco goes into survival mode to see out the 12 rounds or whether he might tell his corner that he’s had enough.

I agree with the sportsbooks that Pascal is a prohibitive favourite — it would be a massive upset if he lost.

The over/under is tricky and has been set at 9.5 or 11.5 rounds, depending on the book. Branco is a very well-preserved 43, but Pascal is, I believe, eager to make an exciting showing in his first title defence. My first thoughts were that Pascal will win a wide points decision but as the fight gets nearer I am edging more towards a late-rounds TKO. I just don’t know how much Branco, in the twilight of his career, is prepared to put into this bout — and we won’t know until the fight is in progress.

TV note: TV coverage will be on Bell TV in Canada, which I believe is primarily a satellite TV service. There is worldwide coverage on the internet on Gofightlive, but those infernal “territorial restrictions” mean that online viewing is not allowed for fans with Canadian computer IP addresses.