HUGO HERNAN GARAY vs CHRIS HENRY

Hugo Hernan Garay of Argentina returns after a nine-month layoff to meet Chris Henry in a WBA light-heavy title eliminator on the PPV show from Mexico tonight and after starting out as an underdog at the sportsbooks he has been bet up to favourite by the players.

I see this as almost an even fight but I slightly favour Garay. Although Garay lost to Gabriel Campillo in his last fight in his second defence of the WBA title I believe he underestimated the Spanish southpaw and simply was not expecting a difficult time.

It seems that Garay put on a considerable amount of weight after his win over Jürgen Brähmer in Germany and the effects of drastic reduction showed as he faded in the middle rounds of the Campillo fight.

Still, it was very close. An almost exhausted Garay dredged up his last resources to finish with a rush in the last round and he looked bitterly disappointed to have lost his title on home soil in a fight that could have been scored a draw.

We now know that Campillo is an excellent fighter. He went to Kazakhstan to defeat Beibut Shumenov in his first title defence and then lost to Shumenov on what seemed to me to be quite a shocking decision in Las Vegas. To lose a close decision to Campillo is not such a terribly bad result, then, especially if, as seems likely, Garay was not at his best.

Henry is a durable and determined fighter. He impressively overpowered Shaun George in six rounds in his last fight, but it seemed that Henry’s more stylish opponent was mentally beaten very early in the bout.

I rate Garay as a higher-level fighter than Henry. The Argentinean is known mainly as a pressure fighter but he showed good boxing skills and movement when he easily outpointed the tough Yuri Barashian, and Garay soundly defeated Brähmer, who I would pick to beat Henry.

Garay will surely be in better fighting trim tonight than he was when losing the title. He knows his career is at stake. Henry will not be easily beaten, but I think that Garay is a bit quicker and has more dimensions than the gritty battler from Houston, Texas. I am taking Garay to score a hard-fought but unanimous decision win.