HERMAN NGOUDJO vs JUAN URANGO

FRIDAY UPDATE:

Preview updated with comments from trainer Russ Anber. Also, a note in Italics at end of the preview looks at the officials for this fight.

Evenly matched fights are what boxing needs and there’s just such a contest on Friday Night Fights in Montreal when Cameroon-born local favourite Herman Ngoudjo takes on Juan Urango, the Miami-based Colombian, for the vacant IBF junior welter title.

This is the sort of fight that could go either way but I would consider Urango the favourite, which isn’t to say I necessarily believe he will win.

Urango is the former champion, a powerfully muscled southpaw who looks almost impossible to knock out. (Hold on a minute, weren’t we saying that about Antonio Margarito until a few days ago?)

There is no question that Urango is the puncher in this fight. He was devastating in his most recent appearance when he flattened Argentinean veteran Carlos Vilches in the fourth round. It was one of the most dramatic and alarming knockouts of 2008. A big right hook from Urango’s southpaw stance dropped Vilches flat on his back. If Urango lands the right hook on Friday, it could be all over for Ngoudjo.

Ngoudjo, though, has assets, namely speed, a good jab and a busy workrate. He can build up points, but whether he can do so without getting caught and stopped is another matter.

The Montreal site favours Ngoudjo, but maybe not by as much as you might think. There is the possibility of a backlash after the controversial 12th round in the fight between Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade last October.

The perception, fair or not, is that Bute got some help from Montreal referee Marlon B. Wright when he was out on his feet with the fight almost over. It could be said that referee Wright did not affect the final outcome by interrupting the eight count and ordering Andrade to get back in a neutral corner — after all, there were seconds remaining and Bute had made to his feet, if barely. Still, with Bute in an exhausted, dazed condition, it is quite likely that some referees would have waved the fight off even before the Montreal boxer crumpled to the canvas. I think that, after the Bute-Andrade furore, if anyone gets any breaks on Friday it will likely be Urango.

Come to think of it, Friday’s fight could play out along similar lines to the Bute-Andrade fight, with Ngoudjo getting off to an early lead on the scorecards, then slowing down and finding himself in difficulties as the power and pressure of the physically stronger man starts to tell on him.

The commonly held view is that Ngoudjo will be boxing and moving, but he has talked of backing up Urango and in most of Ngoudjo's fights he has been the one moving forward, keeping his hands high, jabbing and throwing quick punches.

If Ngoudjo takes the fight to Urango, he might indeed be able to beat him with pressure and a high punch-volume, or, just as easily, he could find himself getting hit by the sort of punches that will drain the fight out of him.

Ngoudjo has had shaky performances in the past. Hurt and weary, he suffered a knockdown and barely survived the last round against Emanuel Augustus a few years ago. He was down in the second round against heavy hitting Randall Bailey in June 2007, and there were periods in that fight when he looked distinctly vulnerable, although to his credit he dug down and staged a strong rally, sweeping the last two rounds on all three judges’ cards to eke out the split decision win. If Ngoudjo starts to take on a falling-apart look against Urango, though, he might not be able to hold off the stronger Colombian.

What Ngoudjo must do, I feel, is to rattle off the punches in bursts and then try to move away from Urango or around him. If Ngoudjo stays right in front of Urango he will be playing a dangerous game that could lead to disaster. He has to get his tactics exactly right.

Urango has shown his punching power in his last three fights, all KO wins, and he is exceptionally durable. True, Urango had a wobbly opening round against the 38-year-old Kenyan Nasser Athumani, but he got caught by a punch high up on the head, what some call an “equilibrium shot”, and although momentarily in trouble he was soon going after his opponent again.

The sort of opponents who give Urango the most trouble are the speedy ones who do a lot of moving, such as Mike Arnaoutis and Naoufel Ben Rabah.

In Urango’s fight with Ricky Hatton, he hurt his more experienced opponent to the body in the early rounds and it was only when the British boxer started to use a hit-and-move, punch-and-clinch style that he pulled away from the Colombian and began to outpoint and outsmart him. Maybe, though, Ngoudjo has been coached to use a lot of movement in this fight. Just because he has said in a press release that he is willing to mix it up with Urango doesn’t mean he will actually do it.

A negative development on the Ngoudjo side is that his trainer, Howard Grant, will not be in the corner on Friday. Grant is under suspension in Quebec for shoving the referee at the conclusion of the fight between Bute and Grant’s client, Andrade. The lead trainer for Ngoudjo will now be Otis Grant, Howard’s brother. Otis is the more low-key of the brothers and certainly capable, but Howard has been the one who has motivated Ngoudjo in fights that could have slipped away from him. However, I was pleased to learn that the Montreal trainer Russ Anber will be working in the corner with Otis. Anber knows Ngoudjo well and he will be an asset.

The Ngoudjo camp remains upbeat. Howard Grant assured the Montreal Gazette this week: “This will be nothing more than a bump in the road,” adding that Ngoudjo is “very positive and mature”. Montreal promoter Yvon Michel believes that Ngoudjo has the experience and adaptability to cope without Howard Grant in the corner, and I must say that Ngoudjo showed mental strength in his last fight when he boxed the last eight rounds with his left eye swollen and closing yet still managed to outfight Souleymane M’baye in what I thought was a wide win on points.

Russ Anber said from Montreal on Thursday: "My fighter David Lemieux has been training with Ngoudjo so I've been in the gym with Herman every day. Otis will be the chief second and I'm the back-up. This is a 50-50 fight but I do know that Ngoudjo has done everything possible to give himself the best chance of winning. He spent a week in the Dominican Republic and then trained for three weeks at high altitude in Colombia. He's been sparring with Kassim Ouma, and this was just the sort of sparring he needed against a bigger, strong guy.

"When Ngoudjo talks about backing up Urango, there are ways to back a guy up without standing right in front of him. Mosley was backing up Margarito, and Margarito couldn't hit him. Urango is strong and dangerous but Herman can counter this with his speed, skill and the quality of his punching. It's a tough fight but Herman has had his best training camp ever and he has dedicated himself to winning this fight."

I think that the result on Friday hinges on how well Ngoudjo can take Urango’s punches. If he can keep a tight guard and weather the perilous passages that will surely come, he can win. I have changed my mind on this fight a few times but I find myself leaning very slightly to Ngoudjo, on points, in what I would consider a slight upset.

OFFICIALS: The referee will be Marlon B. Wright of Montreal, who was involved in a controversy in the Lucian Bute-Librado Andrade fight last October. It seems almost impossible for a referee to go through his career without being involved in some sort of dispute. A referee cannot please everyone all the time. Wright will handle the fight fairly but if anyone gets any perceived breaks at all I think that it might be Urango rather than the local fighter.

The judges will be Richard Green (Florida), Robert Hoyle (Las Vegas) and Pasquale Procopio (Montreal). As Urango is based in Miami, he will have in Green a judge from his hometown. Hoyle scored Ngoudjo the winner in his split decision victory over Randall Bailey. (I had Ngoudjo winning this fight but it was close). Procopio had Colombian Dionisio Miranda the winner over Sebastien Demers in a fight the Quebec middleweight seemed to have won. He also had Jean Pascal a very close winner, 115-113, over Nigerian Kingsley Ikeke in a bout that Pascal seemed to dominate.

If the Urango-Ngoudjo fight goes to the scorecards and it is a close fight, I feel that Urango quite likely is the boxer who will get the benefit of the doubt in the scoring.