GIUSEPPE LAURI vs JUHO TOLPPOLA

Although the big fight between Nikolai Valuev and Ruslan Chagaev has disappointingly been cancelled, the show goes on in reduced form in Helsinki today, with the 12-round chief supporting bout between Finnish junior welter Juho Tolppola and Italy’s Giuseppe Lauri now elevated to main-event status.

Tolppola has never been able to beat one of the leading Italian boxers in his weight class. Three times he has tried, each time he has failed. He lost a split decision to Michele Orlando in Sicily more than four years ago. Two years ago, on home ground in Helsinki, he was well beaten on points by Michele Di Rocca. Then, last December in Milan, Tolppola was a little unlucky to lose to the veteran Gianluca Branco in their European title fight. Tolppola was pushing Branco hard, and the fight looked evenly poised when the doctor recommended that the bout be stopped due to a swelling on Tolppola’s right temple.

Tolppola tries to break his Italian jinx on Saturday’s big show in Helsinki when he challenges Lauri for the European Union title. This is another tough Italian job for Tolppola, and he is the underdog, but his strong showing against Branco gives hope that perhaps this time he can turn the corner.

Lauri, 33, is a solid technician but not exceptionally gifted. Earlier in his career his durability was doubted after stoppage defeats against Ricky Hatton and Junior Witter in the U.K. He was also stopped by the heavy handed Leva Kirakosyan.

In his last two defeats, Lauri was unable to handle the superior physical strength and heavier punching of Ted Bami, losing by unanimous decision each time in European title fights in Britain.

Tolppola, 27, is not a very hard hitter but he is strong and on his night he can be effective in a workmanlike way. He was a good-quality amateur, winning a bronze medal as a slender flyweight in Helsinki in 2000, where one of his wins in the preliminary rounds came against Jerome Thomas, one of the top French amateurs of recent times. Tolppola also boxed Vic Darchinyan in the amateurs, losing a 5-2 decision on the electronic scoring system. When Tolppola turned pro he was a junior lightweight, but he has grown into a solid-looking 140-pounder.

When looking at Lauri’s record a result that stands out is his seventh-round stoppage win over Michele Di Rocca. As Di Rocca beat Tolppola, the form line would seem to suggest that Lauri is obviously the superior fighter. The form line is a bit misleading here, however. I was able to see Lauri’s fight with Di Rocca, and it was a bizarre ending. Di Rocca seemed to me to be winning the fight, but he was unhappy about the way Lauri came in with his shaved head. It looked as if Di Rocca thought he was being butted — or in danger of this happening — and in the seventh round he simply turned away in surrender. It was hardly an emphatic stoppage win by Lauri.

Lauri is a more talented boxer than Tolppola, with better hand speed and greater variety in his technique, but the Finnish fighter just might be able to get into the fight with pressure and consistency.

If Tolppola stands back and tries to box with Lauri he is going to get outpointed. If, though, he attacks in a bold, determined way, crowds Lauri and doesn’t let him get settled down, he has, I think, an excellent chance of winning. He was basically even-steven against Branco, and I would put Branco at a slightly higher level than Lauri. Different fighters, different fights, of course, but, nevertheless, with the Finnish site factored in, I lean ever-so slightly in favour of Tolppola to battle his way to a close win on points.