GIOVANNI LORENZO vs DIONISIO MIRANDA

LORENZO (left), MIRANDA: each weighed 159. / Photo: TOM CASINO, for Showtime
Location: 
NEWARK, NJ, Feb. 27
Graham's Odds: 
Lorenzo -165; Miranda +145
Over 9.5 -140; under 9.5 +120

After a disappointing failure against Raul Marquez in an IBF middleweight title eliminator last June, Giovanni Lorenzo gets a second chance when he meets Colombian banger Dionisio Miranda in a 12-pound elimination match that is the chief supporting fight to Tomasz Adamek vs Johnathon Banks on Friday's Showtime card.

Lorenzo was outworked and outgamed by Marquez in a fight that seemed very winnable. Although Lorenzo landed some strong right hands, he wilted mentally when his 36-year-old opponent kept steaming into him. A last-round rally wasn’t enough for Lorenzo to pull out the win although it was very close, a one-point fight on all three judges’ cards — if Lorenzo had not had a point deducted for flagrantly butting Marquez he would have escaped with a draw.

That fight seemed to have exposed Lorenzo as a pretender rather than a contender. He looked almost ordinary and lacked mental toughness. Although unbeaten entering the bout, and an Olympic representative for the Dominican Republic in the amateurs, Lorenzo let the fight slip away from him.

Lorenzo is 28 and one would expect him to make the most of this second opportunity. He is big, strong and heavy handed, but he definitely doesn’t like pressure, as the Marquez fight showed, and Miranda will be coming right at him.

Miranda, though, is not an especially gifted fighter although certainly a good puncher. The Colombian’s impressive KO record was built up in his home country against opponents who might kindly be called run of the mill, and he was stopped twice himself. He fought well in his two bouts in North America, though. While well outpointed by Peter Quillin he did manage to wobble the New York prospect, and then Miranda scored a knockdown in winning a split decision over former world title challenger Sebastien Demers in Montreal in his last fight.

Although Lorenzo has had more fights and much deeper amateur background, in terms of ability there isn’t too much between the two boxers. Miranda is a patient type of fighter who stalks his opponents and goes to the body quite well, and he is always looking to land a big right hand or left hook. Lorenzo seems to have a bit more flair and slightly better hand speed and combinations. Either man looks capable of hurting the other and to me this is a wide-open fight in which anything can happen.

I am leaning towards Lorenzo because he surely knows that he let himself down against Marquez and I would like to think that he will push himself harder and dig a bit deeper in Friday’s fight. This could be an explosive fight, but sometimes with two good punchers in the ring a certain amount of caution is shown on both sides. Whether it goes the full 12 rounds or ends early, I’ll take Lorenzo, though not with any great confidence — he just has the look of the slightly better fighter.

Last Updated: 
February 25, 2009 - 4:22pm