FERNANDO MONTIEL vs LUIS MALDONADO

One of the sport’s premier lighter-weight fighters is in action on Saturday when Fernando Montiel defends his 115-pound title against fellow-Mexican Luis Maldonado in a fight that will be televised only in Mexico.

Montiel looked devastating in his last fight when he stopped Martin Castillo in the fourth round, blasting the former champion into retirement.

I must confess I had expected a much tougher fight for Montiel and for a long time I was uncertain who would win. One thing that pushed me in Montiel’s direction was an email from a Mexican aficionado who assured me: “Watch out for a much more aggressive Montiel. He’s changed his style. No more dancing around.”

Obviously, a top-class boxer will adapt his style to meet the demands of a particular contest. In his last two fights, though, Montiel has been coming out assertively and looking to hurt his opponents. Even after getting dropped by the determined and spirited Colombian southpaw Luis Melendez he was soon back on the attack, looking to break his man down with hooks to the body.

The win over Castillo was spectacular. Montiel was not a big betting favourite in that fight, and even though Castillo had shown a bit of wear and tear I don’t think anyone expected him to suffer such a crushingly one-sided defeat.

Maldonado is a capable fighter whose best performance was to box a draw with the excellent Cristian Mijares a couple of years ago. I didn’t see that fight but I would think that Maldonado’s pressure made it close against the more skilful Mijares. However, Mijares is not a seriously hard hitter and Maldonado most likely was able to go right at him and take some punches to land some of his own, which is something I do not think he can afford to do against Montiel.

Although Maldonado is as brave as they come, I think that the draw with Mijares makes him look a little better than he really is.

Maldonado, 30, is a fighter who frankly tends to get hit a lot. I understand that he took a lot of right hands in a unanimous but hard-fought win over Sergio Espinoza, who can fight but is not considered an especially talented boxer. In world title fights against Vic Darchinyan and Nonito Donaire, while Maldonado was gritty and stubborn he took a lot of punishment. Watching those eighth-round stoppage defeats, I had an uneasy feeling because of the number of clean shots Maldonado was taking to the head.

After the sixth round of Maldonado’s fight with Darchinyan, referee Joe Cortez went to the Mexican corner to tell them he wouldn’t let their man continue to take a beating. In the eighth, Darchinyan was taunting Maldonado, virtually playing with him, and it was a relief when referee Cortez stopped what had become a mismatch.

It was more of the same when Maldonado fought Donaire. One again, Maldonado was courageous and did his best, but the sharpshooting Filipino punished him in every round before knocking him down in the seventh and overpowering him in the eighth.

Maldonado was sliced over both eyes against Donaire and he was also cut in the fights with Darchinyan and Perez. He is boxing Montiel just five months after taking what was almost a career-ending type of hammering from Donaire, and without an interim, confidence-building type of fight he is going right back in the ring against a high-level boxer who is fast, hits with real authority and who will probably be looking to continue his run of stoppage wins.

It might help Maldonado that the fight is made at 115 pounds, because he has boxed as a junior bantam in the past and might be stronger and better able to absorb hard blows at this weight. The flip side of the coin is that he was stopped twice at flyweight and is now moving up to face a hurtful hitter at a higher weight.

Maldonado is a good fighter at a level just below true world class, but, despite his draw with Mijares, I feel that he is out of his league against the elite type of fighters — especially the ones who happen to have good punching power.

Montiel might have initial difficulty with Maldonado's switch-hitting, orthodox-to-southpaw style, but he can box effectively in the southpaw position himself and might simply switch stances along with his challenger. A win for Maldonado would have to be considered an astonishing upset and, indeed, I think it is going to be very tough for him to get through the 12 rounds.

I know that fighters can come back from heavy stoppage defeats, but I have a feeling that Saturday’s fight in effect could be round nine of Maldonado’s fight with Donaire.

Sheer guts and fighting pride is likely to keep Maldonado in the fight for several rounds, but if Montiel goes after him the way he did his last couple of opponents I think that the valiant underdog will be in a world of difficulty. I am expecting a dominant display from Montiel, with the speed and sharpness of his punching gradually taking its toll, and I will be somewhat surprised if Maldonado makes it into the ninth round.