FELIX STURM vs KOJI SATO

It is rare for Japan to have a world-class fighter in the heavier weight divisions. The most successful Japanese fighter above lightweight was probably Koichi Wajima, a three-time world junior middleweight champion in the 1970s, while Naotaka Hozumi and Yoshinori Nishizawa fought for world titles at middle and super middle respectively.

Now it is the turn of the undefeated Koji Sato, who challenges Felix Sturm for the WBA middleweight title in Krefeld, Germany on Saturday.

Sturm is a big favourite. He is much more experienced than Sato, he is on home ground and in his last fight he gave one of his finest performances in outpointing his German rival Sebastian Sylvester.

Sato, 28, is something of a novelty challenger but gets his chance because he won the Orient and Pacific title and is clearly a heavy handed fighter, with 13 KOs in his 14 consecutive wins. His record gives him the perception of being dangerous, but whether he will be able to land his punches on the mobile and skilled Sturm is another matter.

I have viewed a number of Sato’s fights, and he is certainly big and strong but he is also methodical, somewhat slow and, in the fights I saw, not very difficult to hit.

Sato was a Japanese amateur champion and boxed in the 2004 Asian Olympic qualifying tournament in Pakistan, where he was stopped by a Thai on the “outclassed” rule in the semifinals. His first pro appearance was in Las Vegas, where he was being trained by Miguel Diaz, and he won in 56 seconds over an opponent who was also having his first bout and who boxed just once more before giving up the sport.

All of Sato’s subsequent bouts have been in Japan and the standard of the boxers he has fought has not been of a very good quality, with most of his KOs coming against inadequate opposition. I saw him struggle with a limited Australian named Adam Vella, and although Sato won in the ninth round he was getting hit a lot and there seemed to be concern in his corner after the seventh round. He was dropped by the southpaw Keichi Eguchi (more surprised than hurt, to be fair) before coming back to overpower his opponent in a wild slugging match that lasted just one minute, 52 seconds, last September.

Sato will take the fight to Sturm and try to measure him with the jab and catch him with one of his heavy right hands or left hooks, and if he connects he can get the champion in trouble, but I see a huge gulf in class in this fight.

Sturm is far more experienced and he has boxed a much higher standard of opponent, which includes the boxers he faced in a world-class amateur career. I think Sturm can look brilliant in this fight, getting in his punches, jabbing, hooking, and gliding away before the slower Sato can blast back at him. Sturm was aggressive as well as artistic in the fight with Sylvester and his fellow-German was quite heavily punished. I must admit I had expected a tough fight for Sturm, but he made it look almost easy.

Sato has, I think, been chosen for a reason by Sturm’s promoter. He is a colourful challenger with an impressive KO percentage, but one whom Sturm should be able to outbox and outspeed all night.

On paper this looks like a fairly wide win on points for Sturm, who has stopped only two of his last 10 opponents — and one of those early endings came when Aussie Gavin Topp was cut over the eye. If Sturm fights with the assertiveness he showed against Sylvester, though, I think there is a chance that he can stop Sato. The Japanese fighter has never met anyone anywhere near as fast, seasoned and skilled as Sturm. If Sturm can keep hitting Sato while not getting hit much himself — which seems a distinct possibility — the stage could be reached where the referee feels that the challenger is in a hopeless situation.

If Sato can hit Sturm on the chin and knock him out, all power to him — it will be a sensational upset. The result I am expecting, though, is a late-rounds, punch-accumulation stoppage win for Sturm, perhaps in the 10th round.