FELIX STURM vs GIOVANNI LORENZO

Felix Sturm is back in action on Saturday, boxing for the first time in 14 months in his middleweight title defence against Giovanni Lorenzo in Cologne, Germany.
 
Sturm was inactive while involved in litigation with the once powerful Universum outfit and now promotes his own fights in partnership with Ahmet Öner’s Arena Box-Promotion. Saturday’s fight is a homecoming of sorts, taking place close to Sturm’s hometown of Leverkusen.
 
Lorenzo, 29, gets his second title chance in Germany, having been outpointed by Sebastian Sylvester a year ago. In that fight, Lorenzo was the bigger puncher but let Sylvester steal rounds with the jab.
 
Sturm has to be considered the clear favourite because he soundly outpointed Sylvester, who in turn defeated Lorenzo. These form guides can be misleading but this one seems an accurate reflection of the ability level of the two fighters.
 
Lorenzo, from the Dominican Republic but New York-based, is big, strong and heavy-handed. He will no doubt have learned from the Sylvester fight, when he looked capable of winning but let the bout slip away.
 
Sturm, though, looks the higher-grade boxer. The German fighter (of Bosnian heritage) keeps a high guard and has an excellent jab, with good hand speed.
 
Lorenzo is clearly the superior puncher, but I think that Sturm has the speed and smart boxing to keep out of serious trouble and should be able to pile up points with the jab against a slower opponent.
 
Sturm is on a run of good form, with five consecutive wins in title bouts after being held to a draw by Randy Griffin. This includes a clear win over Griffin in a rematch.
 
My concern about Sturm in Saturday’s fight is that he might get too involved with Lorenzo. Sturm has been booed for sticking too rigidly to a safety first style. I think it was a desire to please the fans and taking more chances than usual that led to Sturm getting stopped by Javier Castillejo. He outpointed the Spanish veteran in their rematch, but the drawn fight against Griffin saw Sturm again getting caught more than we are used to seeing him get hit. In his last fight, against Khoren Gevor, Sturm used a different type of style from the hit-and-move method that has been successful for him. He stayed right in front of Gevor, gloves up, and fired off bursts of punches on the inside. Gevor was very busy and seemed to be outworking Sturm for long portions of the fight although German TV viewers taking part in online scoring had the fight widely scored in Sturm’s favour.
 
The fight with Lorenzo could be tougher than perhaps it needs to be if Sturm chooses to fight on the inside. I think that Sturm’s best strategy would be to mix up his outside boxing with spurts of punching at closer range. Lorenzo can be dangerous (21 KOs in his 29 wins) and Sturm doesn’t want to throw the fight away by trying too hard to be exciting. In a fight such as this, against an opponent who can hit, getting the W should be the most important thing.
 
Lorenzo has been sparring with the skilful veteran Ishe Smith and says he has increased his strength and endurance under the direction of a conditioning trainer. I am sure that Lorenzo will be very competitive but I have to go with the better pure boxer, Sturm, to pull out a hard-earned win.
 
Betting suggestion, John Simpson-Stephen Smith preview, in subscribers’ section.