EVANDER HOLYFIELD vs FRES OQUENDO

We have learned by now that Evander Holyfield should never be underestimated, and I am not underestimating him in his 12-rounder against Fres Oquendo on pay-per-view this Friday.

Holyfield’s quest to become undisputed heavyweight again seems like the impossible dream, but the dogged 44-year-old did look good in his last fight when blowing away trial horse Jeremy Bates in two rounds.

Those close to Holyfield say that his disappointing showings against Chris Byrd, James Toney and Larry Donald were in large part due to a persistent and nagging shoulder problem. They say that the 21-month layoff has allowed the four-time heavyweight champion to be healthy again. In the fight with Bates he unloaded combinations in an impressive and hurtful way and, yes, it did look as if he had turned back the clock. (Holyfield deadpanned afterwards: “The clock never turned.â€?)

Let us not get too carried away, though. This was a two-round fight against a tailor-made opponent — a short, slow, very hittable heavyweight who knew what it was like to be stopped. And Holyfield looked pretty good against Toney for two rounds, as I recall.

Now Holyfield is in a fight that he could very well lose, one in which he is, in fact, the underdog.

Some will say that Oquendo, 33, has a style that is all wrong for Holyfield — and they could be right.

Ideally, Holyfield, at his age, needs an opponent who will be in front of him and willing to trade punches. Oquendo is known as a crafty boxer, not given to taking chances. He could make Holyfield look bad.

There is a possibility, though, that even if Holyfield can’t land a KO blow he might be able to push Oquendo into a negative type of fight.

The crowd is going to be right behind the much-loved Holyfield and if Oquendo constantly avoids engagement he can expect to be booed unmercifully. This can affect how the judges score a fight.

Holyfield has, I think, chosen Oquendo because he sees him as a heavyweight of respectable qualifications who does not have a great chin, is not considered to be a particularly heavy hitter and who might be capable of being bullied.

Whatever you think of the decision when Oquendo lost to Chris Byrd, it was Byrd who was the aggressor. Yes, Oquendo was outboxing David Tua for eight rounds but I thought he was starting to tire when he got caught and stopped in the ninth. And Oquendo was dreadful against John Ruiz, and behind on points when he got hit on the chin in the 11th.

So, Holyfield can look at these fights and see weaknesses in Oquendo. But can he exploit them? Sometimes an older fighter just cannot follow through when the openings are there, especially when matched against the better-calibre type of opponent.

Holyfield, of course, has been in so many wars that by rights he should have retired long ago. Many wish he had. Evander will not go away, though. He would see it as quitting — and there is no quit in the old warrior. I say “oldâ€? but physically he looks fantastic. One reason he has lasted so long is because he prides himself on always being in top shape and looking good and has never abused his body.

It is true that Holyfield looked like a “shotâ€? fighter against Larry Donald — worse than he has ever looked. The shoulder problem could have been a factor, however, and Donald, with his height, reach, excellent jab and hand speed definitely was the type of boxer that Holyfield should not have been facing.

On balance, I believe that Holyfield has earned the right to be allowed to continue boxing. If he loses on Friday, I think we can all agree that the time has come to walk away — but you can be sure that Holyfield does not contemplate the possibility of defeat.

Can he win? I give him a good chance.

Oquendo, 33, has ability but he has never been what you could call an outstanding heavyweight. I remember how ordinary he looked when stopping the erratic Maurice Harris in the 10th round of a fight he was losing. He was out of the ring for almost two years after Ruiz stopped him.

In his comeback bout last February. Oquendo was unimpressive when stopping a limited Brazilian southpaw named Daniel Bispo in the ninth round. He did look better, though, when outpointing the strong but ordinary Javier Mora last May. I expected a much better showing from Mora but he was badly wobbled by a left hook in the first round and never got into the fight after that.

Oquendo might be able to catch Holyfield early the way he did when almost stopping Mora. I think that the quick — some would say sneaky — punches of Oquendo can give Holyfield problems. If Jeremy Bates could hit Holyfield with a right hand, Oquendo should definitely be able to nail him. But Holyfield is capable of hurting Oquendo, too. His trainer, Ronnie Shields, tells me he would love it if Oquendo gets bold. But Oquendo’s trainer, Freddie Roach, is not likely to encourage anything reckless, despite Holyfield’s age — this old man can still punch.

Tactically, I think that Holyfield would like to be able to fight at a steady rhythm. Oquendo can disrupt this with his jab and also by utilising his well-known punch-and-clinch style, which is boring but effective.

If Holyfield is unable to get his punches off, he faces a difficult night. His timing was good against Jeremy Bates but that was a mismatch.

Holyfield’s aura and his own ironclad certainty of victory makes it tempting to pick him to upset the odds but as the New York promoter Cedric Kushner would say: “It doesn’t figure.â€?

Oquendo does not look too good, or too dangerous, for Holyfield — but he does look too young. A little reluctantly, I have to pick Oquendo, on points.