ENAD LICINA vs YOAN PABLO HERNANDEZ

It’s not one of the weekend’s bigger fights, but the cruiserweight clash between Yoan Pablo Hernandez and Enad Licina on Saturday’s massive Abraham-Taylor show in Berlin is certainly interesting.

This 12-rounder, for Licina’s IBF Intercontinental title, is a meeting of boxers promoted by Sauerland Event, with the winner moving forward in the direction of bigger fights.

Hernandez was a Cuban Olympic representative but lost in his opening bout, although he had the misfortune to be drawn against Russia’s world champion, Makarenko. He wasn’t one of the elite members of the team, but any boxer good enough to be a member of the Cuban squad obviously knows how to fight.

The big drawback with Hernandez is, of course, his chin. In his only loss, he dropped the veteran Wayne Braithwaite but then got caught himself and was overwhelmed in the third round, suffering three knockdowns.

Hernandez has looked shaky in other fights, and he was dropped by journeyman Michael Simms in a close fight.

Licina, of Serbian ancestry, isn’t considered a particularly powerful puncher, but he has stopped three of his last four opponents, and considering the dubious quality of Hernandez’s chin a boxer doesn’t have to be a huge hitter to get the Cuban boxer into difficulties.

Hernandez looks the faster, classier boxer of the two men, but when under pressure he can lose his poise and start throwing wild punches. He will need to be sharp and focused on Saturday, because while Licina isn’t gifted with exceptional ability he is strong, steady and determined.

This is one of those fights where picking a winner is difficult. Licina has won his last 14 bouts but in his last fight he was unimpressive in outpointing an unathletic-looking Mexican boxer named Ignacio Esparaza.

Hernandez, meanwhile, looked quite polished, I thought, when outscoring Aaron Williams in his most recent contest. Williams is a good puncher, but Hernandez boxed confidently and was the fighter going forward and doing most of the punching. He seemed to have Williams a bit intimidated, and when Hernandez is allowed to dictate the tempo he can look world class.

Licina, at 29 the older man by five years, doesn’t have Hernandez’s amateur pedigree but he looks the stronger, tougher fighter, and he has been 12 rounds whereas the Cuban boxer has never been past the eighth.

Although Licina suffered a first-round knockdown against Jose Luis Herrera it appeared that he was caught by a punch in the temple area rather than on the chin. He came back to dominate the remainder of the fight, wearing down Herrera with an accumulation of punches before stopping the Colombian in the eighth.

Licina had a bit of a struggle with the journeyman Kendrick Releford, though, and he also had some problems with Rob Norton who, like Hernandez, is a southpaw.

I make Hernandez the more skilled fighter but Licina will be doing his best to put him under pressure and take him out of his stride. Each is capable of hurting the other, with Hernandez possibly the superior puncher while Licina has the better chin.

Hernandez did come back strongly after getting dropped in the seventh by Simms, and he finished the round with a big left hand that caused a cut on his opponent’s right cheek. This suggests to me that Hernandez has the instincts of a fighter.

When a boxer has an obvious chin problem, as Hernandez does, it makes one hesitate to pick him to win in a competitive fight. I am nevertheless swaying towards Hernandez. I think he has the moves and the combinations to trouble the more methodical Licina and he hits hard enough to prevent his opponent from simply walking through him.

This really is a wide-open fight, but Hernandez just looks the more talented of the two and I'm taking him to win, probably on points, although his backers are likely to be on tenterhooks until the very end.