DELVIN RODRIGUEZ vs ISAAC HLATSHWAYO

After fighting to a draw with Isaac Hlatshwayo in South Africa last November, Delvin Rodriguez has home advantage when they meet in a rematch for the vacant IBF welterweight title at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut on Saturday. The fight can be seen live on the internet for $9.95 at GoFightLive.tv.

Here is a link to order the event:

http://www.gofightlive.tv/showEvent.do?event=478&refCode=fightwriter

Rodriguez reports that he has had a perfect, injury-free training camp. If ever the timing was right for Rodriguez to win a world title, that time is now. He is fighting in his home state at a casino where he has had two of his last four bouts, and he is meeting a fighter he knows well.

Psychologically as well as geographically, Rodriguez is in a good place for this fight. He fought Hlatshwayo to a standstill on his opponent’s home turf and scored the only knockdown of the fight. This time, in familiar surroundings, the odds are clearly in his favour.

Rodriguez believes that he was disrespected by the Hlatshwayo camp when he was in South Africa. He has issued a statement promising to make Hlatshwayo pay for everything he said. So there is a bit of personal animosity here that should add an extra level of electricity to the occasion.

The first fight was a highly entertaining one, with swings of fortune and a debatable decision. Hlatshwayo was originally announced as the winner, but an error was noticed on the master scoresheet and within hours the verdict was changed to a draw.

I have only just been able to watch the video of the fight, and it looked close enough to have gone either way. I had Rodriguez up by one point, 114-113, because of the knockdown that he scored in the ninth round. Hlatshwayo wobbled Rodriguez with a right hand in the fifth round, though, and turned him around with another big right hand in the 12th. Oddly, even though Rodriguez scored the only knockdown, I had the impression that Hlatshwayo was the heavier puncher. The great South African fighter Brian Mitchell, providing the expert analysis for the TV broadcast, had been telling viewers that Rodriguez really wasn’t a very hard puncher when, almost on cue, Hlatshwayo hit the canvas courtesy of a beautifully timed right hand counter.

Rodriguez showed himself to be the faster, flashier boxer, and he did some excellent body punching. Hlatshwayo came straight ahead, strong, tough and determined, relying on his stiff left jab and following right hands. I thought that Rodriguez had the better of it in rounds 10 and 11, but then he got caught again in the 12th and really it looked anyone’s fight when the final bell sounded.

The rematch is likely to be another evenly contested bout. Each man knows what to expect from the other. It will help Rodriguez to be boxing at home this time, but Hlatshwayo seems to be a strong sort mentally as well as physically: he beat Nate Campbell on his opponent’s home turf in Florida and he twice defeated Robert Medley in Australia.

Hlatshwayo’s main drawback is that he is predictable, what the British call “one paced”. He puts pressure on his opponents, but without a great deal of variety.

Kendall Holt was able to exploit Hlatshwayo’s one-track method, outsmarting and outboxing him all through the fight as he moved around the South African, attacked from different directions, feinted him and befuddled him. Down three times, Hlatshwayo barely made it to the final bell.

Rodriguez, though, doesn’t have the fast-twitch muscle fibre or explosiveness that Holt possesses. Although Hlatshwayo has problems with speed and movement, he has shown that he can locate Rodriguez’s chin with his right hand. He knows that he can hurt Rodriguez if he can catch him. This knowledge should keep Hlatshwayo in the fight even if he is losing rounds.

There is no doubt that Rodriguez is the more fluid and versatile of the two men, but Hlatshwayo looks the stronger fighter even though he has moved up two weight divisions — I was amazed that the big-framed Hlatshwayo was able to hold his weight down to lightweight for as long as he did.

On the surface, it looks as if Rodriguez has the clear advantage but I do not make him an overwhelming favourite. Hlatshwayo is clearly convinced in his own mind that he won the first fight, and he comes into the rematch with a winner’s attitude.

Rodriguez is an excellent boxer-puncher but I have doubts about his durability. I can’t forget the way he crashed to defeat in the eighth round against Jose Feliciano, and in his last fight, the narrow win over Shamone Alvarez, Rodriguez was looking distinctly unsteady in the last round after getting caught by a left hand from the New Jersey southpaw. In the first fight with Hlatshwayo, it seemed to me that Rodriguez was in bigger trouble in the fifth round, although he stayed up, than Hlatshwayo was in the ninth, when the South African went down.

I believe that anything can happen in Saturday’s fight. Either man can hurt the other.

Boxing is a strange sport. Things aren’t always what they seem. I remember thinking that, when Jeff Fenech fought a disputed draw with Azumah Nelson in Las Vegas, he would surely win the rematch in Australia because this time he would be on home territory — but Nelson stopped him in eight rounds.

Rodriguez, on paper, should win on Saturday, and if the fight is at all close, one would expect the decision to go Rodriguez’s way. Nevertheless, I believe that Hlatshwayo is a very live underdog in what looks like being a competitive and exciting fight.