ANTONIO MARGARITO vs SHANE MOSLEY

Antonio Margarito’s relentless pressure proved too much for Kermit Cintron and Miguel Cotto in his last two fights and he is a clear favourite to roll over Shane Mosley in their welterweight title fight at the Staples Center, Los Angeles on Saturday, with HBO televising. Mosley, though, says that he feels not simply a young 37 but “special” as he heads into what looks like being one of the toughest, most gruelling fights of hs career.

A sellout crowd of about 18,000 is expected (promoter Top Rank priced tickets realistically in this troubled economic climate) and the fight has a big-event feel to it.

Margarito, 30, looked almost unstoppable in grinding down Cotto, walking through everything that was thrown at him. Mosley is considered the superior technical boxer and smarter fighter, and even though Sugar Shane struggled against Ricardo Mayorga in his last fight he virtually wiped out 11 somewhat lacklustre rounds by scoring a spectacular last-round knockout.

There is no doubt that Mosley is going to put up a courageous and determined challenge. Mosley is the faster of the two fighters and his durability is not in question. He has the seasoning and skills to win rounds and build up points, but keeping Margarito at bay is no easy matter.

Although Mosley is just two inches shorter than Margarito, the Mexican fighter just seems so much longer and rangier. Mosley has given away height and reach before but he has never faced anyone quite like Margarito, someone who wings his punches from all angles and throws such a high volume of punches.

The way Margarito overwhelmed Cotto made him one of the game’s hottest fighters and espn.com asked me to do a piece looking at how he would have fared against a selection of 10 past champions. These lists of hypothetical matches always seem to stir up interest and in some cases passions. I went for Margarito to score the upset in a few of these fights. After all, what’s the point of an article where Margarito goes 0-10 against past champions?

The point I was trying to make was that Margarito would have been a rough handful for anyone and could have surprised some very good fighters, and in no way was I suggesting that he is ready to be ranked with the greats. Some people are always going to miss the point, but reader-response showed there is clearly a lot of interest in Margarito and Saturday’s fight should give us a clearer idea of his prowess or even his all-time potential.

Mosley is a very interesting opponent, a world champ in three weight classes who has fought the best and never been stopped. I wouldn’t call Mosley a slick fighter as such but he has some nice moves and is capable of showing versatility. He is a boxer-fighter with the accent on “fighter”, and although Mosley is capable of jabbing stylishly he is probably best known for his rapid bursts of punches and his left hooks to the body.

I thought that Mosley was largely unconvincing against Mayorga and he had rounds where he couldn’t get his timing right. This could be attributed to Mayorga’s awkward rushes taking Mosley out of his stride. Mosley’s difficult night against Mayorga doesn’t augur well for his chances against Margarito, but I remember Sugar Shane having an unimpressive win over plodder Jose Luis Cruz yet coming back with fine victories over Fernando Vargas and Luis Collazo. Even though he lost the fight, Mosley looked good against Miguel Cotto.

I tend to dismiss the Mayorga fight as a case of Mosley just not having a very good night rather than being in decline. Often times, a long-serving fighter needs a major challenge to get properly motivated. Mosley has just such a challenge on Saturday night. If he can win, it will give his career a massive boost.

Margarito obviously will be seeking to follow up his crushing victory over Cotto with another dramatic triumph, and he has promised to win by knockout. His weight of 145 1/2 pounds seems a little on the light side, but he was just one pound heavier when he destroyed Cintron in their rematch and he was only three-quarters of a pound heavier when bombing out Golden Johnson in the first round, and my suspicion is that in his preparations Margarito has worked on being faster than usual, knowing that Mosley is a speedy fighter.

Mosley’s speed of hand and foot can stand him in good stead in this fight. I am expecting a much sharper Mosley than we saw against Mayorga. He might be able to get in and out, hitting Margarito with quick punches, going to the body with the hook and bringing right hands over the top. Cotto was able to rack up the points in the early rounds of his bout with Margarito, and I would not be surprised if Mosley does the same.

Margarito, though, is usually able to inflict damage even in the rounds that he is losing. Cotto was outboxing him, but from very early in that fight I had the impression that Margarito was taking a little something out of the Puerto Rican boxer with each round, the hooks to the body slowly but surely compromising the other man’s ability to keep on the move. Once Cotto started to slow down, of course, he was in a world of trouble.

Mosley has the physical strength, sturdiness and stamina to endure punishment and take Margarito into the late rounds, but Sugar Shane is not particularly elusive and I do believe that he will find himself getting caught to body and head, hard enough and often enough to affect his ability to maintain a high degree of effectiveness.

I am expecting Margarito to win. I think that he is going to begin to impose his authority on the fight after the halfway stage, and I think the last few rounds will be extremely arduous for Mosley.

Mosley has so much heart and pride that even if he feels he cannot win he will do his utmost to make sure he hears the final bell.

I feel that Margarito has, however, a good chance of becoming the first to stop Mosley, although if he does it will most likely be very late in the fight, around about the 11th round.