ANTHONY MUNDINE vs DANIEL GEALE

Talented but controversial Anthony Mundine sees Wednesday’s fight with fellow-Australian Daniel Geale as the last stop before taking on the world’s top middleweights. For Geale, this is the chance to emerge from relative obscurity and make a name for himself on the world stage. Geale is unbeaten, holds the IBO middleweight title and was a world-class amateur but he has yet to have a big-time victory. If he can upset the odds against Mundine it would be a major achievement, as well as a popular triumph over a fighter whose outspoken manner and arrogant attitude tends to rub people the wrong way, both in Australia and in the worldwide boxing community.

Mundine won two titles as a 168-pounder but decided to move down to the middleweight division last year. “I am willing to travel overseas, take a pay cut, just to show people what I can do, who I am,” Mundine told the Australian media in the lead-up to the fight. “This may be my last fight in Australia, because after this there is nothing but big fish to fry.”

Geale is a low-key individual but has a quiet confidence. He feels that Mundine underestimates him and is in for a surprise. “He thinks it is going to be easy — it is definitely not going to be an easy fight,” Geale told the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper. Geale said that people in the street want him to knock out Mundine. “He says some stuff that a lot of people don’t like,” Geale said, “which is probably the reason why a lot of people come to the fight to see him get knocked out.”

Mundine accepts that some people come to see him beaten and some come to see him win, but it doesn’t seem to worry him either way.

I get the feeling that Mundine is someone who thrives on the mixed feelings that the Australian public has about him. He knows that many people in Australia want to see him lose, and I think that this spurs him on — when he wins he leaves his detractors feeling disappointed, which serves as added motivation.

In the Geale camp the feeling is that Mundine is draining himself to make middleweight and does not punch hard at the lighter weight. Mundine says: “I’m the best and I’m just going to keep proving it and proving it, time and again.”

Mundine has described Geale as a talented boxer but adds: “He ain’t Anthony Mundine.

Geale, 28, does have good skills and hand speed but he is not considered to be a very hard hitter, with just two opponents stopped in his last nine fights.

Geale's best performance came 11 months ago when he easily outpointed Geard Ajetovic, a Serbian former top-level amateur who now lives in the U.K. I thought that Ajetovic had a strong chance to win that fight, but his old fault of giving away rounds while waiting for perfect openings again surfaced as Geale outboxed and outworked him.

I thought that Geale boxed a fast-paced, busy, consistent fight but he didn’t seem to have much power, which I think is one reason why the Mundine camp was eager to make the match.

Mundine’s punching power does seem to have been affected by the drop in weight, but he hasn’t been stopping people lately in any case, his last five wins all coming on unanimous decisions. In his last fight he got in 12 brisk rounds of boxing in a comfortable win over Aussie veteran Shannan Taylor, when Mundine was able to do more or less as he pleased. He faces a more difficult fight on Wednesday because Geale is undefeated, ambitious and coming to win and not merely survive.

Geale is taking a major step up in class, though, and despite his amateur pedigree (Commonwealth Games gold medal, Australian Olympic representative) and 21-0 record I think that Mundine is going to be too much for him.

It seems particularly important to Mundine that he wins these all-Australia showdowns. He went 3-0 against Sam Soliman, stopping him once although the decision in the first fight was somewhat disputed, outboxed Danny Green (a rematch with Green would be huge in Australia if terms can be agreed) and has just enjoyed virtually 12 rounds of target practice against Taylor.

I am expecting Geale to put up a spirited fight, and I think he will win some rounds, but I don’t think he will be able to outbox or outspeed Mundine for the whole 12 rounds. Mundine is capable of rattling off impressive bursts of punches and he is athletic and fast, with a good defence and excellent reflexes. Geale will have his moments but overall I believe that Mundine will have the answers and that his big-fight experience will start to tell as the bout progresses. I would be surprised if Mundine stopped Geale, but I think he will outpoint him clearly in what should be an entertaining 12-rounder.