ALI FUNEKA vs JOAN GUZMAN

I’m glad I held off on my preview of the Ali Funeka rematch until after the weigh-in. I had an idea that a motivated Guzman could improve on the disputed draw of last November. Now, though, I don’t know what to think after Guzman came in an astonishing nine pounds over the lightweight limit in what was to have been a bout for the vacant IBF title on HBO. Funeka, who made weight, will become the new champion if he wins. That is, assuming the fight goes ahead. Guzman agreed to weigh not more than 150 pounds at a weigh-in at 7 a.m. on Saturday.

What we now have is a junior welterweight against a lightweight. Will Guzman have a clear advantage in strength, or will the extra weight will make him slow and sluggish?

Guzman went to England to train for the fight, working with the young British trainer Lee Beard. He was supposedly on course for making weight after assistance from the fitness and nutrition expert Kerry Kayes, who helped Ricky Hatton get down to weight and remain strong for big fights.

My guess is that Guzman reached a sticking point in the weight-reduction process and his people decided not to bring him into the fight weight-drained.

Guzman, of course, failed to make weight for a lightweight title fight with Nate Campbell in September 2008. Guzman was three and a half pounds over the limit that time, and he decided not to go through with the fight because weight loss had weakened him.

To miss the weight by nine pounds is shocking, though.

I suspect that Guzman has again spent most of his training camp trying to lose weight rather than focusing on his boxing training. Some fighters never seem to learn.

In the first fight with Funeka, it looked as if Guzman was a fighter in decline. The decision of a draw was surprising. Funeka landed the harder punches and he had Guzman wobbling in the eighth round. The towering South African punished Guzman with left jabs and pounded him with hooks and right hands.

I thought Funeka won, but I have seen worse draws than this (Lewis-Holyfield I; Chavez-Whitaker; Martinez-Cintron). Guzman dominated the first two rounds, rallied in the 12th, and he made some of the rounds in between quite close with his busy punching. It looked to me like a 115-113 win for Funeka, but HBO’s commentary crew used words such as “absurd” and “unbelievable” to describe the decision.

The perception is that Funeka won before but didn’t get the decision and that he will win the rematch and this time get his hand raised. The weight issue clouds the picture.

Funeka has massive advantages in height and reach. He is a Thomas Hearns type of lightweight with his long jab and big right hand. The chunkier Guzman, a former 122-pound champion, couldn’t seem to gauge the distance quite right for much of the last fight and too many times was caught on the end of Funeka’s punches.

Guzman was handicapped, though, by blood streaming from a crunched nose for the last nine rounds. He showed heart to stay in the fight, and he outworked Funeka to win the final round on two scorecards to escape with the controversial draw.

If Guzman had left his fight in the gym last time, he could be stronger and sharper on Saturday because this time I doubt if he has put himself through an agonising spell of drying out. In the last meeting he was having success with busy punching in the early part of the fight, landing looping punches around Funeka’s high guard and winning four of the first five rounds on all cards.

Then Guzman began to fade, due, I think, to a combination of circumstances — Funeka’s hard and accurate punching had a wearing-down effect, of course, but the effects of losing a large amount of weight in a relatively short amount of time and the constant flow of blood from his nose might also have played a part.

Funeka is the favourite based on the first fight, but Guzman’s weight might give the fighter from the Dominican Republic an unfair advantage. Or did Guzman simply not try to lose weight as a way of getting out of a fight he doesn’t really want?

Without knowing the inside story in situations such as this, making a pick is like taking a shot in the dark.

My sneaking feeling is that Guzman this time, at the heavier weight, will be better able to maintain a fast pace and do enough to outhustle the taller, more methodical Funeka, but in cases such as this, without knowing the inside story, making a pick is like taking a shot in the dark and frankly I just cannot fathom this one at all.