ALEXANDER ALEXEEV vs LOUIS AZILLE

One of the hottest young cruiserweights in the world boxes on the big show in Germany on Saturday when Alexander Alexeev meets veteran Louis Azille in a scheduled 10-rounder.

I was working on an article this week for ESPN.com on the top 10 fighters from the former USSR, and I was tempted to include Alexeev even though he has had only 14 professional fights — he is that good.

When Alexeev represented Russia in the Olympics as a heavyweight he had the misfortune to meet Cuba’s Odlanier Solis in his opening bout, losing by 24-21 on the computer scoring, which meant he was highly competitive. He was a gold medallist in the world and European championships at 201 pounds.

As a professional, Alexeev has stopped 13 of his opponents, with nine not making it past the third round. Clearly, Alexeev is a young man who takes care of business.

I have seen several of Alexeev’s bouts. A tall southpaw, he punches with excellent form and goes to the body impressively. In his last fight he destroyed the veteran Talmadge Griffis, who was retired by his corner after just two rounds.

The 27-year-old Alexeev is probably very close to fighting for a world title. He was featured on a tournament held in conjunction with the WBO convention in Puerto Rico last year, when he knocked out a local boxer in four rounds and he is No. 4 in the organisation’s ratings. The fight with Azille is just a stepping stone on Alexeev’s path to the championship.

It is difficult to see how Azille can go the distance, let alone win. The 37-year-old bodybuilder-turned-boxer was inactive for almost three years after losing on points to Wayne Braithwaite in a world title fight and he has lost two out of three bouts in his comeback. This includes getting stopped in the sixth round by the unbeaten but untested Francisco Palacios on Wednesday Night Fights last August, when Azille was actually doing very well until he got caught — Teddy Atlas had him winning every round up to the sixth.

Since then Azille has lost a unanimous 12-round decision to the unbeaten Danish prospect Anders Hugger. He was very competitive in that fight, knocking down Hugger, when his opponent appeared to have been saved by the bell. Hugger, though, is probably on the European title level at best whereas Alexeev is being groomed for a world championship.

Saturday’s fight is a good one for Alexeev because Azille is a well-known fighter who has boxed for a world title but is past his best and not too difficult to hit. Short for a cruiserweight and heavily muscled, Azille will come forward and seek to put pressure on the taller Alexeev, which means he is quite likely going to get hit with counters. Alexeev has a very good straight left hand from the southpaw stance but he also delivers uppercuts in an effective manner. It is likely that Azille is going have to take punishment in his efforts to force his way into control of the fight, and I just cannot see him standing up to Alexeev’s punching for 10 rounds.

The sportsbooks have set an under/over of 7.5 rounds, with the “under” massively favoured, which is as it should be. I do think, though, that Azille might be a bit more durable than the stoppage loss to Palacios suggests. Sometimes a fighter can just “go” when he gets hit with a shot he isn’t expecting, especially when he gets complacent — and Azille did seem to be cruising nicely towards a victory in that fight.

What I wonder, though, is whether Azille will be able to maintain the will to keep plodding forward if Alexeev consistently hits him with hard shots. This fight has obviously been made for Alexeev to have a good result, and judging by the way he got stuck into Talmadge Griffis I doubt if he will be hanging about too long on Saturday.

Azille surprised a lot of people by going the full 12 rounds with Braithwaite in their rematch, when he put up a tough, stubborn fight after being dropped in the third round, but that was four years ago. I think that he will be doing his best to win on Saturday, and I will be a bit surprised if he gets blown out quickly, but I do think that Alexeev will wear him down and eventually force a stoppage.

Under/over betting propositions can be awfully tricky. The puncher in the fight might hurt a hand, or he might decide to go to a “boxing” style, either for the experience of going rounds or perhaps because he gets rocked himself and decides not to take too many risks. Sometimes the fighter everyone expects to get stopped simply hangs in there on sheer pride and gameness, much as Juan Lazcano did against Ricky Hatton last Saturday.

Alexeev does seem, though, to be an offensive-minded individual and I think he will be looking to get Azille out of the fight. I expect him to do so, but perhaps not until about the seventh round.