Vitali Klitschko is back in the Staples Center on Saturday to defend his WBC heavyweight title against the unbeaten Chris Arreola in an HBO-televised fight that no one expects to go the full 12 rounds.

It was at the Staples Center that Klitschko lost in six bloody rounds to Lennox Lewis, and where he won the title by stopping Corrie Sanders. He has property in Los Angeles, where he lives part of the year with his wife and three children.

The towering Ukrainian is at home in this arena and in the city itself, then, but the crowd will be solidly behind Arreola, the willing slugger from Riverside, CA who seeks to become the first heavyweight champion of Mexican ancestry.

Arreola is making a big leap in class, but Klitschko is 38 and has a history of injury problems. This is a fight that could be tougher for Klitschko than the wide odds suggest.

The Arreola camp has brought conditioning coach Darryl Hudson, on board and it does seem that the challenger has taken his conditioning to a new level. At 251 pounds Arreola is lighter than for his last three fights although some way above the 238 pounds he weighed for his stoppage win over Chazz Witherspoon in his best performance.

Klitschko always enters the ring in excellent condition, of course. Tom Loeffler, of K2 Promotions, told me that Klitschko worked a little more on strength training for Saturday’s fight. “He’s the strongest I’ve ever seen him,” Loeffler said from Los Angeles earlier in the week.

It seems that Klitschko has prepared himself for the possibility of a physical fight because he knows he will have to deal with bullying, crowding aggression. Arreola cannot win by staying on the outside — he realises this and he will be doing his best to close the distance and bomb away when he gets near to Klitschko.

The fight figures to be more demanding for Klitschko than his easy wins over Samuel Peter and Juan Carlos Gomez, both of whom he easily dominated when he returned to the ring after a four-year hiatus due to assorted injuries. He says that the long break from boxing was what he needed to for his body to mend.

Klitschko is getting on in age but he seems to be just as enthusiastic about his boxing as he ever was, and having the long layoff means that he has had four fewer years of wear and tear. He stayed active in various sports during his time away from boxing and never put on weight to any noticeable degree, and when he returned in the fight with Peter it was as if he had never left the game.

Arreola started out as a professional weighing in the mid-230-pound range and he has allowed himself to blow up to the high 250s. I do believe he has trained diligently for this fight, but I have long had the impression with Arreola that an easy-going lifestyle — including an admitted love for beer — might cause his potential to be unfulfilled. We will find out on Saturday night.

Klitschko has the height, reach, experience and superior technical expertise. He moves well for such a big man and isn’t easy to hit flush on the chin because he is clever at stepping back and leaning his body away from punches. An aggressor runs the risk of being countered, and Klitschko hits hard, although he might not be quite the puncher suggested by his very impressive KO statistics.

Arreola is tough and very game and determined, but he has never fought anyone like Klitschko. His biggest win was the knockout over Jameel McCline, who from what I can gather had been hauled out of retirement. Although Arreola overpowered both Chazz Witherspoon and Travis Walker in three rounds he was getting caught a lot by both men, and Walker had him down, of course.

I just can’t get the image out of my mind of Arreola eating jabs and right hands in these fights. Each time Arreola was able to impose his will, but Witherspoon and Walker were right in front of him and couldn’t take Arreola’s punches. Klitschko is likely to be smart and cautious, hitting and then stepping away.

Arreola is dangerous, and despite his bulk he has good hand speed and combinations, but he is the fighter who will have to commit himself and take chances. He can hurt anyone he can hit, but Klitschko has always shown a good chin — he stood up to some heavy hits from Lewis and he weathered a big opening attack from Corrie Sanders. I think that Arreola will need to get through with a series of punches to get Klitschko out of the fight, but he will most likely have to walk through punishment in the attempt. Simply put, I can see Klitschko hitting Arreola more than Arreola hits him. Klitschko is astute and he punches accurately. His long left hand is likely to frustrate Arreola as well as setting up the Ukrainian’s right-hand missiles, and I can envisage Klitschko getting out of the way of most of Arreola’s punches.

Although I agree with the books that Klitschko has to be a clear favourite, I don’t see this as a mismatch. There is always a chance that Arreola can take Klitschko’s best punches and come through with pressure, guts and his own heavy artillery to score a shocking upset win. I have to agree with the old “class will tell” adage, though. I see Klitschko as the higher class of fighter, and while a quick blowout would be a surprise I do see Klitschko gradually breaking down Arreola from the outside to force a stoppage in about eight rounds.