Jorge Arce is to be commended for taking on a tough opponent in his return to the ring on Sunday. Has he, however, taken on someone a little too tough in Tomas Rojas, whom he meets in a 12-rounder for the WBC Latin bantamweight title on the “Viva Mexico” show that ties in with the Mexican Independence Day celebrations?

The sportsbooks opened Arce as a clear but fairly modest favourite considering he is a big-name fighter meeting someone who is relatively unknown. I do believe Arce should be the favourite, maybe even a tad higher than the sportsbooks have him, but that does mean that he will win.

There must be doubts about Arce after his performance against Cristian Mijares, when he was bloodied and soundly beaten on points in April.

Arce says he wasn’t motivated, went in expecting an easy fight and that it simply was not his night. He promises that his fans will see the “real” Jorge Arce against Rojas. For his sake, I hope so, because if he boxes as poorly as he did against Mijares he will be in trouble on Sunday in Las Vegas, in a fight that will be televised on TV Azteca in Mexico and on the network’s sister channel, Azteca America, in the U.S., along with the Edgar Sosa-Lorenzo Trejo fight.

A knowledgeable boxing insider told me this week that he puzzles over why the match has been made. “Arce just got licked by a tall southpaw, now he’s back in with another tall southpaw,” he said. “I guess they [Arce’s handlers] must know something.”

This sums up the feeling from my contacts and knowledgeable readers: This looks a very tough fight on paper, but Arce’s people cannot have made a mistake at such a crucial stage in the career of the colourful attraction from Los Mochis. Or can they?

Rojas has lost 10 fights — all on points — in an 11-year career in which he faced tough opponents and has often been the underdog. He has fought in the other man’s home territory in Nicaragua, the Philippines and Panama.

My impression of Rojas has always been of a tough, game fighter just short of world-class. When he goes up against the higher-calibre fighters he loses, although usually giving a good account of himself. He was outclassed by Cristian Mijares a few years ago (but then Mijares outclassed Arce, too) and he lost in a spirited showing against Gerry Penalosa in the Philippines (I made the note: “Penalosa has to fight for it”).

Rojas did win away from home in Nicaragua when he stopped Moises Castro, a tough southpaw, in the 10th round, and more recently he had a nice win at home in Mexico when he halted Ramon Leyte, a southpaw who had stopped four of his last five opponents.

Although Rojas was outscored by the Puerto Rican southpaw Jose Nieves last year it seemed a close fight and he dropped his shifty opponent twice (once a clear flooring, the other more an off-balance type of knockdown). I actually had that fight a draw although the judges went unanimously for Nieves. When the decision was announced the Azteca America commentator exclaimed: “No, no!” Instead of interviewing Nieves after the fight the commentator went straight to Rojas, who seemed astonished that the verdict had gone against him.

Rojas was frustrated by Nieves’s movement in that fight, gesturing to the Puerto Rican to stand and fight — Nieves very sensibly declined the invitation. On Sunday, Rojas will not have to worry about his opponent keeping away from him — unless there has been a sea change in Arce’s style he will be coming right at his fellow-Mexican.

Rojas’s southpaw style as such should not be a big problem for Arce, who although trounced by Mijares has wins over tough left-handers Melchor Cob Castro and Juanito Rubillar. What could be a problem is the 2 1/2-inch height advantage and bantamweight strength of Rojas, who has been boxing at 118 pounds for a couple of years although he turned professional as a light-flyweight; Arce is moving up from 115 pounds in what I understand is a one-off fight before dropping back to the 115-pound super flyweight division.

Perhaps, as Arce says, he just had a dreadful night and was simply not “there” when he fought Mijares. It was his first loss since he got stunningly knocked out when leading on points against the more experienced Michael Carbajal in 1999. He has won a lot of fights at the top level, including an unforgettable, blood-spattered war with Hussein Hussein: in the rematch the Australian boxer folded in two rounds. It could be that Arce will come out with a guns-blazing type of attack that will be far too much for Rojas to handle.

This was my first thought when the match was announced. Arce was no ball of fire, though, in his unanimous decision win over the Argentinean Julio David Roque Ler in his last fight before meeting Mijares. True, he was in with a crafty, durable boxer who was very defensive for long periods, but whenever the Argentinean let his hands go he hit Arce all-too easily.

More importantly, I thought I saw something worrying in the fight with Mijares. Normally Arce will keep attacking, come hell or high water, but against Mijares he seemed a bit reluctant to keep going right at his man — it was not the same Arce who walked though the hardest punches of Hussein Hussein and ignored blood flowing from a vicious cut on the bridge of the nose to overpower an accomplished opponent in 10 epic rounds.

If the old intensity is somehow just not there any more, Arce could be in with the wrong type of opponent in Rojas, someone whose past performances indicate that he will fight hard and keep throwing punches.

Given all the circumstances it is a fascinating fight.

Arce’s career is at stake so we can expect him to be motivated and focused, but this is a great opportunity for Rojas, who at 27 is the younger man by a year. If Rojas pulls off the upset it will change his life.

The thought that will not go away is that Arce’s experienced team could not have got it wrong in making the match, but based on the Mijares fight, and possibly the one with Roque Ler, the fire might not be burning inside Arce the way it once did.

On Sunday, I think one of two things will happen. I think that Arce will come back with a tremendous, dominant performance or he will be outfought over the course of 12 gruelling rounds by an inspired underdog — and my guess is that the latter scenario is a distinct possibility.

Monday, Sept. 17: Arce's sixth-round, come-from-behind win is reviewed as today's feature story.

RESULT: For five rounds Arce was losing, then a big left hook to the body won him the fight in the sixth.