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MAYWEATHER, GUERRERO: Could an upset be looming? / Photo: Tom Casino, for Showtime

Mayweather -650; Guerrero +450

Over 10.5 -285; under 10.5 +185

Floyd Mayweather Jr. shook the boxing world in February by announcing he was leaving the HBO fold to sign a six-fight deal with HBO’s rival subscription network, Showtime. The first of these PPV attractions takes place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas tonight, when Mayweather defends his WBC welterweight title against the interim champion, Robert Guerrero.

Considered the best fighter in the world at any weight, Mayweather is widely expected to defeat Guerrero decisively to start off the new Showtime contact in compelling fashion. There’s something about Guerrero, though, that makes me think he has a real chance of pulling off one of the biggest upsets in years.

SERGIO MARTINEZ vs MARTIN MURRAY

MARTINEZ, MURRAY: Homecoming for 'Maravilla'. / Photo Will Hart, HBO

Martinez -650; Murray +400

Over 9.5 -135; under 9.5 +115

Challenging for a championship away from home is never likely to be easy. Martin Murray discovered this when he went to Germany and came away with a draw against Felix Sturm in a fight that, at home in the U.K., he might well have won. Murray faces an even tougher assignment tonight, though, when the 30–year-old from St. Helens in northwest England ducks between the ropes in Buenos Aires to take on one of the elite fighters of the age, Argentina’s Sergio “Maravilla’ Martinez, for the WBC middleweight title, with TV coverage on HBO.

This, quite simply, is about as daunting a task as it gets for British boxer on foreign soil, with a 38,000 crowd at a soccer stadium roaring its support for Martinez.

SAUL 'CANELO' ALVAREZ vs AUSTIN TROUT

ALVAREZ, TROUT: Let's hope there's no controversy. / Photo: TOM CASINO, for Showtime

Alvarez -180; Trout +140

Over 10.5 -190; under 10.5 +155

After having proved the oddsmakers wrong by defeating Miguel Cotto at Madison Square Garden, Austin Trout goes for his second consecutive upset victory when he meets Saul “Canelo” Alvarez in a clash of unbeaten junior middleweight champions at the Alamodome in San Antonio on Saturday (TV coverage on Showtime).

Trout was boxing on his opponent’s home ground when he outscored Cotto, who had never lost at the Garden and had New York’s sizeable Puerto Rican boxing community cheering for him. Now Trout is meeting a hugely popular Mexican boxer who will have a big Mexican and Mexican-American crowd on his side.

TONY BELLEW vs ISAAC CHILEMBA

BELLEW (right) promises to bring the pain.

Bellew -165; Chilemba +130

Over 9.5 -170; under 9.5 +150

WealthTV features boxing for the second week in a row on Saturday with a double-header from Liverpool, and although Tony Bellew’s fight with Isaac Chilemba for the WBC Silver light-heavyweight title is the main event, the chief supporting bout between Anthony Crolla and Derry Mathews for the Commonwealth lightweight title could steal the show.

“Bomber” Bellew, fighting at home in Liverpool, is the favourite against Chilemba. Bellew’s only loss was on a majority decision against unbeaten British rival Nathan Cleverly, and I consider this Bellew’s best performance even though he lost.

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A GREAT WEEKEND FOR THE FORTYSOMETHINGS

MOSLEY dominated when he backed up Cano. / Photo: SUMIO YAMADA

Ever noticed that the best fights are seldom the PPV main events? Last weekend saw three compelling contests, each tense and dramatic in its own way.

First, let’s take a look at Sugar Shane Mosley, who gave almost a vintage performance in outpointing Pablo Cesar Cano on his opponent’s home ground in Cancun, Mexico, on Saturday night (Fox Deportes).

You’ll sometimes hear older people say “Age is just a number” but fighters such as Mosley, Bernard Hopkins of course and Guillermo Jones (more on Jones later) make you start believing it.

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Previews and picks of the week

After publishing a free-access website for four years I switched to a subscription service in 2010. This service contains previews and opinions on a selection of fights from around the world and is specifically intended for those who like to wager on boxing matches.

The link between boxing and wagering has long fascinated me. Sportsmen have been gambling on boxing matches since the bare-knuckle beginnings of the sport.

Many sites offer free tips on boxing matches. Picking winners and successfully wagering on boxing are not one and the same, though.

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About Graham

I’ve been covering boxing for a very long time, since 1963, first writing for newspapers in London, then for the two specialist publications Boxing News and Boxing Monthly in the U.K. (I was editor of both) before crossing the pond, since when I have been American correspondent for each of these journals in turn. Read More

Reports

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SAUL 'CANELO' ALVAREZ W12 AUSTIN TROUT

One thing that I don’t think very many people expected was Saul “Canelo” Alvarez to outbox Austin Trout in Saturday’s junior middleweight title fight on Showtime. Once Canelo came out and started slipping Trout’s jab in the opening round it set the tone for the fight.

Trout was supposed to be the smarter, slicker boxer here, but Canelo was the fighter showing the superior head and upper-body movement. In the fifth round he had had Trout missing with four consecutive punches and seemed to give a little smile of satisfaction.

GUILLERMO RIGONDEAUX W12 NONITO DONAIRE

Although the crowd at Radio City Music Hall got restless at the tactical nature of the bout, I enjoyed the exhibition of boxing skill put forth by Guillermo Rigondeaux in his unanimous decision victory over Nonito Donaire on Saturday night. I must confess I wouldn’t have enjoyed it nearly as much had I been a Donaire backer.

Rigondeaux’s win reminded me of a southpaw version of the way Floyd Mayweather Jr. outboxed a taller puncher in Diego Corrales but without the knockdowns and stoppage.

MIKE ALVARADO W12 BRANDON RIOS

In a boxing match there is often a pivotal moment, an incident that defines the fight. It came, for me, in the third round of the fight between Mike Alvarado and Brandon Rios last Saturday.

Rios had been dominating the fight, pressing forward like an army of superior strength pushing back a weaker force, when Alvarado fired back with a right hand that rocked Rios and buckled his legs.

ROBERT STIEGLITZ TKO end of 3 ARTHUR ABRAHAM

You’ve heard the expression “fought like a man possessed”. That’s how Robert Stieglitz fought on Saturday as he swept aside Arthur Abraham in three violent, thrilling rounds to capture the WBO super middleweight title while avenging the defeat he suffered against Abraham last August.

Abraham said before the fight that Stieglitz wouldn’t be able to change his style, but “King” Arthur got that completely wrong. Stieglitz stormed into him with a passion and a fury that he has never before exhibited.