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MAIDANA, LOPEZ: Can Lopez upset the odds again? / Photo: Esther Lin, Showtime

Maidana -200; Lopez +160

Over 9.5 -155; under 9.5 +135

Marcos Maidana’s heavy hitting has to be respected but I believe Josesito Lopez is a live underdog in what should be an exciting welterweight fight scheduled for 12 rounds on tonight’s Showtime card from the Home Depot Center in the Los Angeles suburbs.

Argentina’s always-exciting Maidana is tough and he’s dangerous, but he's beatable.

In Maidana’s last fight, against Jesus Soto Karass, it looked as if the Argentinean banger was fading around the sixth round. He turned the fight around with some big punches, dropping Soto Karass late in the seventh round before bludgeoning him to defeat in the eighth, but for a while things were looking shaky for Maidana.

CARL FROCH vs MIKKEL KESSLER II

KESSLER, FROCH: It doesn't get any better. / Photo: Team Sauerland

Froch -170; Kessler +140

Over 10.5 -180; under 10.5 +140

Boxing doesn’t get any better than when elite fighters meet, which is what we’re getting on Saturday when Carl Froch meets Mikkel Kessler in a rematch, with the revenge angle adding extra tension to what cannot fail to be a memorable meeting.

Last time the two met, in Denmark three years ago, Kessler eked out a close but unanimous decision in a thrilling contest that saw each man give and take severe punishment. This time the fight is in London, a clash of 168lbs champions (Froch defending the IBF title, Kessler the WBA’s “super world” championship), with Sky Sports televising on PPV in the UK and HBO live in the United States.

FLOYD MAYWEATHER Jr. vs ROBERT GUERRERO

MAYWEATHER, GUERRERO: Could an upset be looming? / Photo: Tom Casino, for Showtime

Mayweather -650; Guerrero +450

Over 10.5 -285; under 10.5 +185

Floyd Mayweather Jr. shook the boxing world in February by announcing he was leaving the HBO fold to sign a six-fight deal with HBO’s rival subscription network, Showtime. The first of these PPV attractions takes place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas tonight, when Mayweather defends his WBC welterweight title against the interim champion, Robert Guerrero.

Considered the best fighter in the world at any weight, Mayweather is widely expected to defeat Guerrero decisively to start off the new Showtime contact in compelling fashion. There’s something about Guerrero, though, that makes me think he has a real chance of pulling off one of the biggest upsets in years.

SERGIO MARTINEZ vs MARTIN MURRAY

MARTINEZ, MURRAY: Homecoming for 'Maravilla'. / Photo Will Hart, HBO

Martinez -650; Murray +400

Over 9.5 -135; under 9.5 +115

Challenging for a championship away from home is never likely to be easy. Martin Murray discovered this when he went to Germany and came away with a draw against Felix Sturm in a fight that, at home in the U.K., he might well have won. Murray faces an even tougher assignment tonight, though, when the 30–year-old from St. Helens in northwest England ducks between the ropes in Buenos Aires to take on one of the elite fighters of the age, Argentina’s Sergio “Maravilla’ Martinez, for the WBC middleweight title, with TV coverage on HBO.

This, quite simply, is about as daunting a task as it gets for British boxer on foreign soil, with a 38,000 crowd at a soccer stadium roaring its support for Martinez.

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MIKEY GARCIA vs JUAN MANUEL LOPEZ

GARCIA, LOPEZ: Will Mikey's weight struggles make a difference? / Photo: CHRIS FARINA, Top Rank

Garcia -600; Lopez +400

Over 9.5 +160; under 9.5 -200

Mikey Garcia missing weight for tonight's fight with Juan Manuel Lopez obliged me to rewrite my preview and take another look at the bout in Dallas (TV coverage on HBO).

Garcia looked drained at the weigh-in after coming in at 128 pounds, and when he failed to shed the excess he lost his WBO featherweight title on the scales. Briefly, the fight looked like being cancelled, but the Lopez camp agreed to go ahead with the bout after being guaranteed an extra $100,000 on top of JuanMa’s purse. If Lopez pulls off the upset he wins the WBO title, otherwise the championship remains vacant.

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Previews and picks of the week

After publishing a free-access website for four years I switched to a subscription service in 2010. This service contains previews and opinions on a selection of fights from around the world and is specifically intended for those who like to wager on boxing matches.

The link between boxing and wagering has long fascinated me. Sportsmen have been gambling on boxing matches since the bare-knuckle beginnings of the sport.

Many sites offer free tips on boxing matches. Picking winners and successfully wagering on boxing are not one and the same, though.

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About Graham

I’ve been covering boxing for a very long time, since 1963, first writing for newspapers in London, then for the two specialist publications Boxing News and Boxing Monthly in the U.K. (I was editor of both) before crossing the pond, since when I have been American correspondent for each of these journals in turn. Read More

Reports

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SHANE MOSLEY W12 PABLO CESAR CANO

Ever noticed that the best fights are seldom the PPV main events? Last weekend saw three compelling contests, each tense and dramatic in its own way.

First, let’s take a look at Sugar Shane Mosley, who gave almost a vintage performance in outpointing Pablo Cesar Cano on his opponent’s home ground in Cancun, Mexico, on Saturday night (Fox Deportes).

You’ll sometimes hear older people say “Age is just a number” but fighters such as Mosley, Bernard Hopkins of course and Guillermo Jones (more on Jones later) make you start believing it.

SAUL 'CANELO' ALVAREZ W12 AUSTIN TROUT

One thing that I don’t think very many people expected was Saul “Canelo” Alvarez to outbox Austin Trout in Saturday’s junior middleweight title fight on Showtime. Once Canelo came out and started slipping Trout’s jab in the opening round it set the tone for the fight.

Trout was supposed to be the smarter, slicker boxer here, but Canelo was the fighter showing the superior head and upper-body movement. In the fifth round he had had Trout missing with four consecutive punches and seemed to give a little smile of satisfaction.

GUILLERMO RIGONDEAUX W12 NONITO DONAIRE

Although the crowd at Radio City Music Hall got restless at the tactical nature of the bout, I enjoyed the exhibition of boxing skill put forth by Guillermo Rigondeaux in his unanimous decision victory over Nonito Donaire on Saturday night. I must confess I wouldn’t have enjoyed it nearly as much had I been a Donaire backer.

Rigondeaux’s win reminded me of a southpaw version of the way Floyd Mayweather Jr. outboxed a taller puncher in Diego Corrales but without the knockdowns and stoppage.

MIKE ALVARADO W12 BRANDON RIOS

In a boxing match there is often a pivotal moment, an incident that defines the fight. It came, for me, in the third round of the fight between Mike Alvarado and Brandon Rios last Saturday.

Rios had been dominating the fight, pressing forward like an army of superior strength pushing back a weaker force, when Alvarado fired back with a right hand that rocked Rios and buckled his legs.